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Wednesday, 21 August 2013
Tuesday, 20 August 2013
IS INDIA BACK TO LEHMAN CRISIS?
Well, current economic crisis looks like India’s Lehman moment especially if you look at Govt Bond Yields.
Here’s the Bond Yield Chart of Last 6 years
Current Bond Yield is 9.24%. Technically, we are just few bps below Lehman’s crisis high of 9.46%
Monday, 19 August 2013
10 MULTIBAGGERS OF LAST 5 YEARS
10 Stocks which multiplied wealth for investors in the last 5 years
| Symbol | Close on 31 July 2008 | Close oN 31 JULY 2013 | Times Multibagger |
| KAJARIACER | 34.05 | 240.9 | 7.07 |
| GSKCONS | 643 | 4671.95 | 7.27 |
| SHREECEM | 593.55 | 4354.75 | 7.34 |
| NATCOPHARM | 72.85 | 607.1 | 8.33 |
| VGUARD | 55.85 | 530.15 | 9.49 |
| PAGEIND | 447.9 | 4375.1 | 9.77 |
| AJANTPHARM | 81.85 | 939.25 | 11.48 |
| EICHERMOT | 271.95 | 3489.25 | 12.83 |
| LAOPALA | 23.65 | 415.8 | 17.58 |
| TTKPRESTIG | 115.05 | 3616.15 | 31.43 |
CAN ITC GIVE A BOUNCE FOR INDEX MANAGEMENT
ITC – Bounce back trade in the Offing ? Index Impact as well.
-> The stock has been making higher tops and higher bottoms for a long time now.
-> The trend is positive and the last bottom at 310 as well as the trendline and channels now co-incide around 310 odd levels.
> So for now a trade could be buy around 310 odd with stoploss at 300. Upside should be 330-340 where one can review.
Meanwhile on Nifty we have broken the last few months low which confirms the stance to be cautious but given the polarization of weights we may keep seeing major swings. Have some trendline supports at 5400 as well as channels. So a bounce to 5550-5600 seems possible if we hold around this zone. Given that it will be a counter trend trade and the risk of doing that a better way is to go through options of September expiry like a 5700 at 55-60 bucks.
Sunday, 18 August 2013
HOPE FOR THE BEST BUT BE READY FOR THE WORST: OUTLOOK FOR REST OF 2013
The last 2-3 weeks have been terrible for broader markets but fridays
hit on Sensex , Nifty has suddenly made people aware of the crisis.
Given the fact that Bse Midcap, Bse Smallcap, CNX Midcap, Bank Nifty and many other sectoral indices have fallen much before did not ring a bell. But a 750 points drop on Sensex gets the headline – Sensex crashes 750 points on Black Friday and so on. On this big Black Friday , surprisingly Midcap Indices feel 3% against the 4% drop on benchmark. Seems more like catchup by benchmark index. USD INR has crossed 62.
Before we look at the broader picture lets have a look at the technical picture.
Nifty Technical View
In my previous views at 5500-5600 was very bullish and even looking at a possibility of 6200 being hit and even getting crossed. Also USD – INR topping out at 59-60.
After the report we saw a drop to 5570-5600 and a bounce all the way to 6090. Not far from the 6200 band. Luckily we could get a lot of good trades in that period in Nifty.
Post that the whole bullish side of things went for a toss and have been posting a lot of warnings on why to not go bottom fishing in stocks like Financial Tech or others. ( we did dip into Wockhardt and yes bank taking a small hit but holding on )
Although Nifty has been struggling around 5500-5700 but broader market indices have collapsed with mid caps being badly hit. The reason is the polarization of the Index towards IT, Pharma and defensive's as well as towards the Top 20. In my previous posts over last 2 years have mentioned how Nifty weightages have changed the Nifty
Finally someone took a cue on this side of the index weightage. Crisil has done a good summary of the wieghtages and how Nifty is entirely different from what it was in 2008 and 2013–
Finally someone took a cue on this side of the index weightage. Crisil has done a good summary of the wieghtages and how Nifty is entirely different from what it was in 2008 and 2013–
Nifty on pure technicals without looking at top 10-20 stocks is clearly now in a downtrend but there is no momentum. Some hope comes for a bounce from 5400-5450 with positive divergences, inter-market divergences and highly oversold zones like before. But will that stay for long is the question with Nifty almost close at break of the trendline.
-> The triangle is huge and a pure technical approach gives us a downside of at least 500-700 points or much much more on breakdown. The only reason we are a bit neutral is that not many heavies are on verge of similar breakdowns. Infosys, ITC , Reliance, TCS etc still in good shape.
-> All said and done if it does break down and catches momentum because of USD-INR or other factors one should be ready for the Worst and hope for the Best.
Sensex Technical View
-> Now here comes another intermarket divergence where Sensex has not broken recent lows similar to Nifty and is still above the trendline.
-> There is some hope at 18000-18200 for a short term support.
Bank Nifty Technical View :
This is another surprise as over the last 6-7 years we have not seen Bank Nifty go opposite to the Nifty or under perform in such a big way.
-> Comfortably breaking all trend lines and now approaching ( 4800 levels of Nifty ) at 9000-9200 where we can have some short term bounce.
-> The trend has definitely changed down and the risk is with banks like HDFC, Kotak which have been holding fort in previous corrections.
-> PSU banks have been damaged so badly that it stinks of something terrible in them or the biggest over reaction in last 10 years with lowest price-book and highest div yields like 9-11% in some cases. ( Dividends may be reduced big time next year it seems)
BSE SMALLCAP '
-> The biggest hit has been smallcaps where stocks have dropped 95% from peak also or even more.
-> It is even below 2011 December lows !
BSE MIDCAP TECHNICAL VIEW -
-> This is not far from December 2011 lows ( Nifty 4500). It is because of some quality midcaps with big weightage the index still looks ok. Else its a mayhem for many midcap companies.
Now come to the part of how to trade this market.
Midcaps have been damaged, Smallcaps killed and Index still holding on. There can be further damage to largecaps but at some price many midcaps will be way too value and find a base. Largecaps are pretty well priced with many stocks at 30-40 p-es and p-b of 4-5 for some banks.
At the same time some stocks are in superb uptrends and giving new all time highs.
So it is now a time to be very stock specific – Look at the trades we suggested like Biocon, Tech Mahindra, Bharti Airtel and many more which have performed even in this markets.
Simply put ——– Be very careful, patient, conserve capital and be very stock specific. Because even a wrong short trade will also be a bad hit.
Now coming to other thoughts
In last few weeks have met a lot of people in various industries and absolutely no one seems to be happy with the business apart from friends in IT space ( jobs and startups ). Rather there is a serious downturn in many business ,verge of closing down , huge losses, piled up inventories, reduced ad spends and so on. Fresh graduates, CAs, MBAs are having a rather tough time finding good jobs and worst part is the education fees were never so high. I remember doing my engineering course of 4 years for 60-70k in 2002-2006 and in 10 years now that does not pay up even for a year in schools or engineering colleges. ( MBAs are way to costly, Studying Abroad is up 20% in 2 months ).
Recent news of 300-600 people being laid off by Network 18 is terrible. Because there is never just one company laying off. When it starts it goes on like a chain reaction. Its like a deja vu ( 2008 ) but will this time will we be out of it soon because of improved sentiments. ( Rise of 2009 in elections. Can 2014 elections do the same? ). Really dont know the answer to this.
People in equities have already seen a 5 year rut and many linked businesses have started closing since a couple of years. Also markets tend to be 6-12 months earlier than the real economy. So next few quarters can be terrible for businesses , jobs and so on but will hopefully lead to a major panic bottom for Equities ( not just the benchmark)
But this is how life is with ups and downs. Businesses, jobs etc and so on. Here i would like to put an old wisdom which an old investor says – Ye Waqt Guzar Jayega , No Situation is Permanent or Forever. In every adversity lies and Opportunity for the Future.
Believe that this is the right time to enjoy the time with friends,family and take the pleasure of small things than to crib , debate, sulk about the economy
. Because a year of bad times you crib and when the cycle rolls up we are back working more than ever !
Also this time around if you have not put some investments do so in small lots of 5-10 % of your allocation every month for next 10-12 months and you will be rewarded.
Given the fact that Bse Midcap, Bse Smallcap, CNX Midcap, Bank Nifty and many other sectoral indices have fallen much before did not ring a bell. But a 750 points drop on Sensex gets the headline – Sensex crashes 750 points on Black Friday and so on. On this big Black Friday , surprisingly Midcap Indices feel 3% against the 4% drop on benchmark. Seems more like catchup by benchmark index. USD INR has crossed 62.
Before we look at the broader picture lets have a look at the technical picture.
Nifty Technical View
In my previous views at 5500-5600 was very bullish and even looking at a possibility of 6200 being hit and even getting crossed. Also USD – INR topping out at 59-60.
After the report we saw a drop to 5570-5600 and a bounce all the way to 6090. Not far from the 6200 band. Luckily we could get a lot of good trades in that period in Nifty.
Post that the whole bullish side of things went for a toss and have been posting a lot of warnings on why to not go bottom fishing in stocks like Financial Tech or others. ( we did dip into Wockhardt and yes bank taking a small hit but holding on )
Although Nifty has been struggling around 5500-5700 but broader market indices have collapsed with mid caps being badly hit. The reason is the polarization of the Index towards IT, Pharma and defensive's as well as towards the Top 20. In my previous posts over last 2 years have mentioned how Nifty weightages have changed the Nifty
Finally someone took a cue on this side of the index weightage. Crisil has done a good summary of the wieghtages and how Nifty is entirely different from what it was in 2008 and 2013–
Finally someone took a cue on this side of the index weightage. Crisil has done a good summary of the wieghtages and how Nifty is entirely different from what it was in 2008 and 2013–
Nifty on pure technicals without looking at top 10-20 stocks is clearly now in a downtrend but there is no momentum. Some hope comes for a bounce from 5400-5450 with positive divergences, inter-market divergences and highly oversold zones like before. But will that stay for long is the question with Nifty almost close at break of the trendline.
-> The triangle is huge and a pure technical approach gives us a downside of at least 500-700 points or much much more on breakdown. The only reason we are a bit neutral is that not many heavies are on verge of similar breakdowns. Infosys, ITC , Reliance, TCS etc still in good shape.
-> All said and done if it does break down and catches momentum because of USD-INR or other factors one should be ready for the Worst and hope for the Best.
Sensex Technical View
-> Now here comes another intermarket divergence where Sensex has not broken recent lows similar to Nifty and is still above the trendline.
-> There is some hope at 18000-18200 for a short term support.
Bank Nifty Technical View :
This is another surprise as over the last 6-7 years we have not seen Bank Nifty go opposite to the Nifty or under perform in such a big way.
-> Comfortably breaking all trend lines and now approaching ( 4800 levels of Nifty ) at 9000-9200 where we can have some short term bounce.
-> The trend has definitely changed down and the risk is with banks like HDFC, Kotak which have been holding fort in previous corrections.
-> PSU banks have been damaged so badly that it stinks of something terrible in them or the biggest over reaction in last 10 years with lowest price-book and highest div yields like 9-11% in some cases. ( Dividends may be reduced big time next year it seems)
BSE SMALLCAP '
-> The biggest hit has been smallcaps where stocks have dropped 95% from peak also or even more.
-> It is even below 2011 December lows !
BSE MIDCAP TECHNICAL VIEW -
-> This is not far from December 2011 lows ( Nifty 4500). It is because of some quality midcaps with big weightage the index still looks ok. Else its a mayhem for many midcap companies.
Now come to the part of how to trade this market.
Midcaps have been damaged, Smallcaps killed and Index still holding on. There can be further damage to largecaps but at some price many midcaps will be way too value and find a base. Largecaps are pretty well priced with many stocks at 30-40 p-es and p-b of 4-5 for some banks.
At the same time some stocks are in superb uptrends and giving new all time highs.
So it is now a time to be very stock specific – Look at the trades we suggested like Biocon, Tech Mahindra, Bharti Airtel and many more which have performed even in this markets.
Simply put ——– Be very careful, patient, conserve capital and be very stock specific. Because even a wrong short trade will also be a bad hit.
Now coming to other thoughts
In last few weeks have met a lot of people in various industries and absolutely no one seems to be happy with the business apart from friends in IT space ( jobs and startups ). Rather there is a serious downturn in many business ,verge of closing down , huge losses, piled up inventories, reduced ad spends and so on. Fresh graduates, CAs, MBAs are having a rather tough time finding good jobs and worst part is the education fees were never so high. I remember doing my engineering course of 4 years for 60-70k in 2002-2006 and in 10 years now that does not pay up even for a year in schools or engineering colleges. ( MBAs are way to costly, Studying Abroad is up 20% in 2 months ).
Recent news of 300-600 people being laid off by Network 18 is terrible. Because there is never just one company laying off. When it starts it goes on like a chain reaction. Its like a deja vu ( 2008 ) but will this time will we be out of it soon because of improved sentiments. ( Rise of 2009 in elections. Can 2014 elections do the same? ). Really dont know the answer to this.
People in equities have already seen a 5 year rut and many linked businesses have started closing since a couple of years. Also markets tend to be 6-12 months earlier than the real economy. So next few quarters can be terrible for businesses , jobs and so on but will hopefully lead to a major panic bottom for Equities ( not just the benchmark)
But this is how life is with ups and downs. Businesses, jobs etc and so on. Here i would like to put an old wisdom which an old investor says – Ye Waqt Guzar Jayega , No Situation is Permanent or Forever. In every adversity lies and Opportunity for the Future.
Believe that this is the right time to enjoy the time with friends,family and take the pleasure of small things than to crib , debate, sulk about the economy
. Because a year of bad times you crib and when the cycle rolls up we are back working more than ever !Also this time around if you have not put some investments do so in small lots of 5-10 % of your allocation every month for next 10-12 months and you will be rewarded.
Friday, 16 August 2013
BULLS are trying to kickstart BHARAT FORGE
Here’s the Chart
Bharat Forge post earnings made a big surge and generally that’s how stock starts its momentum journey. If there is follow through and stock during consolidation does not decline below 219 – then one can look at target of 270 on upside.
The Problem
When stocks are in downtrend, they make so many false starts that it becomes difficult to bet on the right one. It’s like trying to start a bike which you keep kicking hoping this effort will work. We don’t know whether this effort will succeed. One can attempt a trade with 219 as stop loss knowing fully well that risks are high.
Thursday, 15 August 2013
TATA MOT DVR CAN TEST 175-190 IN SHORT TERM
Reco Tata mot dvr fut as a buy FOR PAID CLEINTSon wednesday @ 144 & Stock did 152 intraday ( lot 2000) PROFIT 16000 RS
AS OF NOW AS US MARKET IS TRADING 200 POINT DOWN CAN EXPECT TATA MOTORS TO START WITH A GAP DOWN WHICH WILL PRESENT US ANOTHER EXCELLENT BUYING OPPORTUNITY
Lets look at the Technical Reason behind the buy call
HOW'S TATA MOT LOOKING TECHNICALLY ??
Hope you find this post useful , plz forward it to your friends
AS OF NOW AS US MARKET IS TRADING 200 POINT DOWN CAN EXPECT TATA MOTORS TO START WITH A GAP DOWN WHICH WILL PRESENT US ANOTHER EXCELLENT BUYING OPPORTUNITY
Lets look at the Technical Reason behind the buy call
HOW'S TATA MOT LOOKING TECHNICALLY ??
Clearly
, Tata Mot is nearing its all time highs @ 337-40 ...but its dvr is 25%
away from its all time high of 190 , so there may be a case of catching
up with original share price & Dvr might move more than Tata mot
from now on !!
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