HCL TECH and Aurobindo Pharma – Two Interesting technical charts

HCL TECH

A nice triangle formation with a breakout above 810-815 levels can give a strong move to 850/880 levels in the short term.
-> Can be a buy on dips or in momentum above 810-815 sustaining. Stoploss 770.

Aurobindo Pharma -

In the short term on daily charts a breakout above 190-191 gives a target of 200-202 but the major consideration should be done once it starts sustaining above 205
A stock to keep watch. below is a weekly chart.

How High US Yields can Go? DISASTER FOR EMERGING MATKET CURRENCIES

How High US Yields can Go?


US economy added 195K jobs in June. The news was good enough to spike up the Yields. The 10 Year Treasury yields now are at 2.72%.  It is trading at 2 year High. Technically, the breakout above 2.3-2.4% looks significant and seems to be the new base for the yields.

 
The Big question: Where should 10 Year US Treasury Yield be?

The 10-year yield typically trades between 0.8x and 1.0x times nominal U.S. GDP. If we assume that real growth is about 2.25% and inflation is at 1.40%, then we have nominal growth of 3.65%. At 0.8x (at low end of the range) — 0.8x 3.65% = 2.82%, not far from the current yield of 2.69%….Jim Cramer

Fundamentally, the market seems to have priced in and it would be interesting to see how market behaves from here on as far as bond prices are concerned. Remember, any more spike in Yields will be disastrous for Emerging market currencies and  may be equities too.

Trendless Market

 
Here’s the Chart of Nifty

 
There is very little one can do when market is just bouncing around with no clear direction. Just look at the chart of the Nifty – it’s just moving all over the place up down and nowhere. There is no clear leadership except few names in Pharma, IT and FMCG space.
Gas pricing reforms seem to have played out with Reliance making a big move but now at resistance of 890-910. ONGC will be in big subsidy mess thanks to INR depreciation. Banking looks weak with most of the stocks threatening to break down.
Nifty will open  down depending on Global cues but there is no fundamental strength in the market. With Tapering talk gathering momentum – Indian markets may not get adequate liquidity support too. So, there is very tough case to make in any direction right now. It’s a market that is avoid as of now on positional basis.