How High US Yields can Go?
US economy added 195K jobs in June. The news was good enough to spike up the Yields. The 10 Year Treasury yields now are at 2.72%. It is trading at 2 year High. Technically, the breakout above 2.3-2.4% looks significant and seems to be the new base for the yields.
The Big question: Where should 10 Year US Treasury Yield be?
US economy added 195K jobs in June. The news was good enough to spike up the Yields. The 10 Year Treasury yields now are at 2.72%. It is trading at 2 year High. Technically, the breakout above 2.3-2.4% looks significant and seems to be the new base for the yields.
The Big question: Where should 10 Year US Treasury Yield be?
The 10-year yield typically trades between 0.8x and 1.0x times nominal U.S. GDP. If we assume that real growth is about 2.25% and inflation is at 1.40%, then we have nominal growth of 3.65%. At 0.8x (at low end of the range) — 0.8x 3.65% = 2.82%, not far from the current yield of 2.69%….Jim CramerFundamentally, the market seems to have priced in and it would be interesting to see how market behaves from here on as far as bond prices are concerned. Remember, any more spike in Yields will be disastrous for Emerging market currencies and may be equities too.
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