HITS AND MISSES OF JULY A REVIEW

YOU CAN REVIEW ALL MY RECOMMENDATION FOR THE MONTH OF JULY BELOW I CAN SAY  WE HAD A STUNNING MONTH WITH NOT EVEN A SINGLE MISS IN CASH SEGMENT THOSE WHO TRADED IN FUTURES& OPTION  WITH SINGLE LOT WOULD HAVE MADE MORE THAN 1 LAKH RUPEES PROFIT ALONE IN F&O

PERFORMANCE FOR THE MONTH OF JULY

HITS F&O

AMBUJA CEMENT 200 CA 1.75 MOVED TO 6.50 PROFITS 10000 RS

AMBUJA CEMENT 195 CA 3.00 MOVED TO 10 PROFITS 12000 RS

FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGY SOLD AT 690   LOT SIZE 500 COVERED AT 620 PROFIT 35000 RS

TECH MAHINDRA 1140 CA @ 20 RS   WE BOOKED OUT AT 53 HIT 58 PROFIT 8250 RS

HDFC 820 CA @ 10 RS HIT 19 RS PROFIT 2250 RS

SELL HAVELLS 728- 730 SL 740 TGT 690- 660  LOT SIZE 500( MEGA HIT INTRADAY ITSELF) STOCK ACHIEVED BOTH TARGETS  500*70= 35000 RS 

MISSES IN OPTIONS

HOT BUY M&M CAN BUY M&M 920 CA 15 RS SL TRIGGERED (MISS) LOSS 2000 RS

Buy PFC fut @ 142.5 Sl 140.5 tgt 148-50, also reco 150 ca @ 3.3-3.4 SL TRIGGRED (MISS) LOSS 2400 RS

SBI 2000 call seems interesting as a bet with sl of 20 and tgt 50 SL TRIGGED (MISS) LOSS 750 RS

HITS CASH SEGMENT

CALL OF THE MONTH

FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGY AND AMBUJA CEMENT

AMBUJA CEMENT   BUY ABOVE 188 TARGET 215 REACHED 212 (HIT)

FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGIES

SOLD AT 690   LOT SIZE 500 COVERED AT 620 PROFIT 35000

TARGET 600 ACHIEVED SUPER DUPER HIT CALL

AMARRAJA BATTERY BUY BETWEEN 240- 245   TARGET 280 ACHIEVED (HIT)

TCS BUY 1530 TGT 6- 10 %   TGT 1700+ BOOKED OUT AT 1770 (ACHIEVED SUPER HIT)

CESC BUY ABOVE 350 HIT 374 (HIT)

ALEMBICPHARMA BUY AT 138 AND AGAIN AT 149 TGT 170 ACHIVED (HIT) 2 TIMES

NATCAO PHARMA BUY GIVEN AT 430 STOCK WENT ALL THE WAY TO HIT 650  SUPER HIT ACHIEVED

WIPRO GIVEN BUY ABOVE 355 FOR 380 AND 390 BOTH TARGET ACHIEVED (SUPER HIT)

HCL TECH BUY 810- 815 TGT 890 ACHIEVED (SUPER HIT)

INDOCO REMEDIES BUY ABOVE 66 TGT 75 TARGET ACHIEVED

ONGC GIVEN BUY @ 290 ST TGT 320 LT 350 ST TARGET ACHIEVED IN 3 DAYS (HIT)

TECH MAHINDRA BUY 1125 ALREADY REACHED 1260  (HIT) 

HDFC BANK 805 – 810 REACHED 835 HIT

BIOCON told to buy above 305 FOR TARGET 325- 330 ACHIEVED (HIT)

JET AIRWAYS TOLD TO BUY ABOVE 378 FOR TARGET 430- 450 ACHIEVED TARGET 1 VERY QUICK MOVE JUST IN A DAY

KOTAK BANK TOLD TO SELL BELOW 680  FOR TARGET 640 ALREADY ACHIEVED 645

MISSES

NO MISSES STILL IN CASH SEGMENT

Capitulation in Midcaps

In the last couple of sessions we are seeing a lot of midcaps which were holding on are suddenly collapsing with no major announcement or news in the stock. Tough times for investors.

Some of the stocks are as below

Havells down 15%

tv 18 down 8% and is now down to 17 rs

NBCC is down 8% to 112 ———— ( Will need to rework on this at sub 100 levels will be interesting )

Triveni Turbine down 5% to 51   ( this can be interesting at 40-45 bucks )

Orient Cements down to 35 bucks ( This seems interesting )

Geometric Software is down 20% after results

—Vakrangee software  A risky company with LIC Stake mentioned yesterday is down on another 20% lower circuit

Vivimed Labs is down 10% and falling from 250 to 110 on lower circuits.

Plethico Pharma down on lower circuits

Innoventive Inds where IDFC mutual Fund bought a stake  at 130 bucks is on lower circuit at 40.

BGR Energy is down to 80 after founder expired. Last OFS was at 118

Nilkamal Plastics is down 8% at 110 ……………. ( this is a stock i have recommended at 190- levels to my long  term clients and facing a big hit)

Hanung Toys  – Another manipulated counter with debts at 10 times market cap as of today continues on lower circuit.

Navneet Publications down 5-7% with no reason

LIC Housing , BPCL, HPCL

Venus Remedies, TV Today , Sequent Specific, Lovable Lingerie and many others which are down 4-10% whereas the Nifty is down only a 1.2%

These are difficult times for investors. Some of the reasons could be .

-> Quite a lot of Managements are not trustworthy.

-> If the management is trustworthy the macro scenario is changing very fast.

-> The size of the companies are small and institutional investors have become totally anti-midcaps with the previous instances of bad managements.

-> There is absolutely No interest from retail and HNI so even if there is a company available at great value there will be a long gestation period till the macro changes and demand comes back.

-> Prices are a function of demand and supply. Current actions like PCAS and low liquidity otherwise also is a deterrent for any buyer and the demand is totally gone.

-> Majority of Indian companies are not keen to give big dividends which can reduce downsides. ( For example like NESCO but the company needs money so no dividends and so no re-rating of the stock )

-> At current levels many midcaps are terribly underprices but with no demand stock prices can continue to slide lower. Investors with a 1-3-5 years view will be rewarded but if you are looking at next 3 months be careful.

Some of the stocks which i liked and hold Smartlink has dropped from 548-55 levels to 43 today with low volumes. Available at 1/3rd the cash on books. Nucleus Software has added 100 crores to the cash in balance sheet in 2 years but stock at same price. The stock looks interesting at 60-70 bucks if one has a long term view. Am comfortable holding on to them for years to come.

We will discuss many such stocks which present value but the market price will be a function of demand supply which for now is not in favor.

Strategy ————– If you have studied the company and are comfortable about the long term prospects and margin of safety there is nothing to worry and rather should look for buying at unexpected levels.
If you have a short term view and stuck into some unknown stocks and with no research or conviction keep a stoploss and exit.
At the same time Nifty and the benchmark may continue to show a different picture.


Disclosure: For the past few months we have just been waiting and watching for new investment picks ( nursing losses on older picks )  and still not convinced with the technical picture for midcap space but are seriously looking for big bargains to cover up.
Some stocks we are watching NBCC at 80-100 , NMDC at 70-80 , Smartlink , Nucleus, Orient Cements, Arvind Limited and many more. Although the view is clearly now changing to 1-3 years and be ready for even a 20-40% drop from entry prices so to accumulate only and no big purchases.
Most importantly to buy a chunk of your exposure only takes few minutes to execute so technically the right thing we believe is to wait for the prices to give the hint.

Technical Trades have been doing good with some shorts like Financial Technologies , ,ITC   and longs like Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra , Biocon and so on. The focus has shifted purely to the top 100-200 stocks for now even when we are bullish or bearish in the short term. 

TRADE OF THE DAY : HAVELLS MINTED 35000 PROFIT INTRAY DAY

Havells reco to paid clients as Sell @ 728-30 sl 740 target 690- 660 lot size 500 hits All tgts lot 

stunning  fall minted mega profits 35000 rs stock even fell more to 630  far exceeding my targets

Stock fell below 50 dma before announcement of results today

So i initiated the short call in it

Remember this the next time you watch CNBC TV 18

While researching for trendzofmarket I came across this interesting factoid: The TV18 group which runs the CNBC TV-18 channel owns around 1.78% of a company called Refex Refrigerants.
Apparently,this stake was bought way back in Jan 2008 (when markets were at its peak).The purchase price?A princely Rs.200 per share.
At that time, B. Sai Kumar, Group COO of TV18 Group said:“We are very happy with this partnership since we believe that Refex’s aggressive growth plans combined with our ability to reach them in an engaging way and the reach of our multi-platform media vehicle will ensure that Refex is a significant player in the fast-growing environmental friendly refrigeration market”
Fast forward, five years later, Refex is quoting at 3 Rs/share..a colossal wealth destruction of 98% of its purchase price!!And TV18 is still clinging on its shares.
So running a 24 hour news channel is no guarantee that you will make money on your investments.
Remember this the next time you watch CNBC TV18 !