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MCDOWELL- HOW BREAK OUTS WORKS A STUDY

 McDowell stock has seem amazing run in last 10 years. Let us study and learn from this stock behaviour


Here’s how McDowell Breakout played out pre-2008
McDowell Weekly Chart

 

Breakout Phase: McDowell stock made a high of 350 in Jan 2000. It then slipped pretty dramatically because of bear market of CY 2000-2003. It formed a well defined resistance of 75 and traded below it for long time before finally breaking out above it in Nov 2004. It just changed the trajectory of the stock and from levels of 75 – the stock took off vertically and first took out Previous High of 350 by Sep 2005. It then rallied to 800 by Sep 2006 – and then pulled back to test 350 as support. Interestingly, the pullback to 350 – coincided with 100 week ma. The stock took off from the support and made a high of 2060 in Jan 2008. It was a move of 27x between Nov 2004 and Jan 2008. Well those were the heady days of unbelievable bull market.
Panic and Trendless Phase: Then came 2008 Global crisis shock and McDowell stock collapsed from 2060 to just above CY 2000 highs of 350. The stock then traded up and down with no clear trend for long time. Then around June 2012 – stock witnessed increase in trading volumes and from levels of 500 – stock rallied to 2060 in just 6 months. Stock was again knocking the doors of all time HIGH.

FRESH BREAKOUT ABOVE CY 2008 HIGHS OF 2060

As you can see in the weekly chart above: McDowell broke out above levels of 2060 in May 2013 and rallied to 2831 but it has been more than 8 months now – and stock seems to be stuck between 2060 and 2830 now. Now the big question: Since the breakout is more than 10 years old, how much new breakout can be trusted? Is the current pattern between 2060 and 2800 a topping pattern? We don’t know. Technically, you should be with the trend which means a stock is Hold above 2060 and buy near 2060. The stock is BULLISH as long as it holds 100 week moving average and 2060 whichever is lower.
We spend day in day out analyze what stock did today or yesterday and then miss the big picture