Here’s what weekly chart tells us
What does long tail at 200 week moving average signify? – SUPPORT
Contrary to popular perception – Nifty has been in steady uptrend since January 2012 post bottom formation around 4600.
The Jan-Feb 2012 Rally (AB): In just 7 weeks in Jan-Feb 2012 – Nifty rallied from 4600 to 5600. It was a quick 21% rally.
Corrective Pullback (BC): The quick euphoria waned and Nifty lost its way and declined from 5600 to 200 week ma by end May 2012.
Took Support and Rallied (DE): Nifty took the support at 200 week ma and rallied again from 4800 all the way to 6200 between June 2012 and May 2013. That was an impressive rally of 29% in a year.
Corrective Pullback from 6200 (E): Nifty once again started correcting and in just 3 months – came down from 6200 to 5500 by August 16 2013. The level of 5500 had acted as support in 2013 and hence there was nothing out of place and too bearish.
The Period of CONFUSION: Last Two weeks
The period of confusion has come in last two weeks when Nifty dramatically broke down below 5500. Post Breakdown – there was sharp sell off and equally sharp pullback resulting in two long legged doji formation. Doji represent anxiety, confusion and indecisiveness. Technically, on a weekly chart – the print represents indecisiveness above 200 week ma with two massive short covering from lows.
The Big question: Has market sold off enough at large cap level to stage a comeback?
On a weekly chart, the answer can be “may be” but if you scratch the surface, scan the fundamentals and look ahead – there is no case to buy the market. The level of 5500 looks like a tough resistance for Nifty to cross and not support.
What does long tail at 200 week moving average signify? – SUPPORT
Contrary to popular perception – Nifty has been in steady uptrend since January 2012 post bottom formation around 4600.
The Jan-Feb 2012 Rally (AB): In just 7 weeks in Jan-Feb 2012 – Nifty rallied from 4600 to 5600. It was a quick 21% rally.
Corrective Pullback (BC): The quick euphoria waned and Nifty lost its way and declined from 5600 to 200 week ma by end May 2012.
Took Support and Rallied (DE): Nifty took the support at 200 week ma and rallied again from 4800 all the way to 6200 between June 2012 and May 2013. That was an impressive rally of 29% in a year.
Corrective Pullback from 6200 (E): Nifty once again started correcting and in just 3 months – came down from 6200 to 5500 by August 16 2013. The level of 5500 had acted as support in 2013 and hence there was nothing out of place and too bearish.
The Period of CONFUSION: Last Two weeks
The period of confusion has come in last two weeks when Nifty dramatically broke down below 5500. Post Breakdown – there was sharp sell off and equally sharp pullback resulting in two long legged doji formation. Doji represent anxiety, confusion and indecisiveness. Technically, on a weekly chart – the print represents indecisiveness above 200 week ma with two massive short covering from lows.
The Big question: Has market sold off enough at large cap level to stage a comeback?
On a weekly chart, the answer can be “may be” but if you scratch the surface, scan the fundamentals and look ahead – there is no case to buy the market. The level of 5500 looks like a tough resistance for Nifty to cross and not support.
