Thursday, 13 March 2014

IMPORTANCE OF BREAKOUT STRUCTURE

When stocks breakout: the only thing investor should watch out for – Structure of the Stock Chart. Here’s How.

Structure of the Breakout Chart
When stocks breakout from a base and pattern: it signals Bullishness to the trading community and market participants. Now post breakout – stock can do anything and to realize returns: traders and investors should hold on to the stock. But the question comes: what is the level one should track and when one should give up on the stock. Here’s the simple answer:
Look at the moving average from where stock has taken off while breaking out and that moving average becomes the level to track. As long as stock trades above it: one should be bullish. The moment that level cracks on closing basis, one should be out. 
Let me share two examples:
Yes Bank – A Breakout that Failed

As you can see in the Weekly chart above: Yes Bank stock broke out above 380 after the stock took double dip support at 50 week moving average. This double dip support before taking off made this 50 week ma – the most important level to track the bullish structure.
Just see, how stock post breakout above 380 behaved. It broke out – consolidated for couple of weeks and then took off to 538. It pulled back – took support at 50 week ma and again took off. But in next wave of selling – the stock cracked through 50 week ma and then collapsed.

IndusInd Bank: Breakout that Survived

As you can see in the Weekly chart above: IndusInd Bank broke out above 290-292. The stock took off from 120 week ma before breaking out; and hence that became the level to track for the stock. Now post breakout, IndusInd Bank first took support at 290 and then rallied and since then has held on to 120 week ma. This has kept the structure of the stock intact and has delivered steady and safe returns to investors holding the stock.
Lesson: Breakout stocks are Buy and Ride as long as it holds the structure of the stock. The structure is determined from the moving average from where stock takes off before breakout and then breaks out.

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