Wednesday, 8 January 2014

CAN NIFTY BULLS HUNT DOWN THE FINAL NIFTY BEARS AT 6350-6400 ?


Nifty has built a powerful roof over last 6-7 years and now market participants are desperately looking for force (election results) that can break this ceiling
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Where’s the roof? – 6400 at Nifty

Here’s how Nifty Weekly Chart has behaved in last 6-7 years

As you can see in the chart above: Nifty has made 3 unsuccessful attempts to break past 6350-6400 in last 6 years. First subprime crisis broke the back of market in Jan 2008, and then in Nov 2010 – the corruption+ inflation threat broke the market down from that same level. Now emergence of AAP post state elections seem to have acted as a lid to the 6350-6400 ceiling.
Now as we move closer to elections and depending on market perception on who will form the next Govt: Nifty’s future course of action may follow. But as a market participant take the event of breaking out above 6350-6400 with total seriousness.

Just look at the way S&P behaved on its breakout to new high



S&P500 also broke out above 12 year High of 1530-1560. Post Breakout, S&P500 made a small pullback to 1560 before taking off and rallying to 1800. That’s what breakouts do. It results in sharp move in short period of time.
Market will do what it has to do, we can only guess.

The Big picture level to remember: Nifty breakout above 6350-6400 will lead to massive upside move in market in short term. So, keep an eye on this event
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