S&P500: THE REAL PICTURE

When we follow market closely on day-2-day basis, we miss the big picture. Here’s one fact: S&P500 has not seen even a 10% correction since last 2 years. That’s how strong the market has been. But amidst all the strength: What has market actually done?

Here’s S&P500 Weekly Chart: Is market going to Moon  

In 2012, S&P500 built a base around 50 week ma: tested thrice and then took off. In 2013: it did not even correct to 50 week ma even once. It’s a perfect chart that shows market took off in a major major bullish way.

Here’s the S&P500 Daily Chart

In 2013, the market exhibited huge strength and S&P500 saw huge buying interest on even minor corrections to 100 dma. So, that means decline to 100 dma turned out to be good buying opportunity. The message: market is going Higher
BUT WHAT IS THE BIG PICTURE
S&P500 moving up on easy money of QE. Trend persists much longer than one can imagine. S&P500 is in solid uptrend. Is that the Big picture? We all can also debate how this will all end but we again are missing an important point: What has market achieved by moving like this in last two years

The Big Picture is the Chart below:

S&P500 is Trading at New HIGH and it has broken out above double top resistance of 1530-1560. Post Breakout, S&P500 did pullback to 1560 before taking off and rallying to 1800. Now, the Law of Breakout says that S&P500 may pullback either to 1530-1560 completely or a moving average like 100 week ma. Since, S&P500 has moved a lot in last two years, it’s quite likely that S&P500 may stall, build a fresh base at 1530-1560 before launching another upmove. Now, I am sure the decline to 1530-1560 may create anxiety and nervousness and End of Bull market call: but remember market may just be following a simple script of Breakout. That’s one big picture, traders should not keep an eye off.
Market will do what it has to do, we can only guess. The Big picture level to remember: S&P500 has broken out above CY2000 and CY2007 High of 1530-1560 and pullback to those levels cannot be ruled out.