Jet
Airways rallied 9% today to close at 232. Does that mean stock is ready
to rally? Well – just look at the chart and you will understand why the
rally means nothing
Jet Airways is a sinking stock
As you
can see in the chart above: Jet Airways stock has declined from 650 in
May 2013 to now at 232 by Feb 2014. It’s too dramatic a decline and
chart has been so badly damaged in this fall that any rally will invite
sellers sooner than later. Technical turnarounds do not happen by one
day bounce. Sharp rally can sometimes break the downside momentum but
that is no guarantee of up move.
Why stock was up 10% today?
Competition
Commission of India’s (CCI) approval for purchase of 50.1 percent stake
in Jet Privilege Private Ltd (JPPL), a customer loyalty programme unit
of Jet Airways. But this news has been there for months. The news may
offer some floor for time being but it does not change the operating
environment of the company. Also, remember – few days back Federal
Aviation Administration (FAA) has warned Indian airlines on safety
issues and has put a ban on new flights to US. Things are tough and
today’s rally can only be perceived as a relief and not a game changing
event neither fundamentally nor technically.
"We
don't only tell you what stocks did, we tell you why, and we tell you
where stocks are headed next. How? By tracking the psychology of the
markets, tracking patterns and indicators that reveal where stock prices
are trending, giving us high probability trade opportunities."
We
invite you to become Premium member of the website and get access to
all our recommendations. WE just charge 2500 rs/pm .To join us plz mail
us to trendzofmarket@gmail.com
You run
the risk of drowning. The same happens with the stock that tries to
rally against the trend. It eventually sinks to New Lows.
Have a Look at one such stock: Bank of Baroda
Here’s the weekly chart
As you
can see in the chart above: Bank of Baroda began its downtrend in 2011
and since then every attempt of the stock to rally against the trend has
resulted in fresh declines. The stock is a prime example of why one
should never try to hunt for a bottom in a stock that is in downtrend.
Reason: It’s not worth it.
Trend persists longer than one can imagine
Power sector
has suffered a lot in last five years with all sorts of problems from
project clearances to coal availability to indecision on tariffs to
poor health of SEBs.
Tata Power Company is
India’s largest private sector, integrated utility company. The company
has an installed power generating capacity of about 6000 MW. The
company through
its subsidiaries and joint ventures has a presence in power
transmission, distribution and trading. The company’s health is the best
way to gauge the health of the Power sector.
Well, Pictures speak for themselves. Here’s the Tata Power stock Weekly Chart
Well as
you can see in the chart above – the stock has witnessed waterfall like
decline. From Highs of 145 in CY2010, the stock has come down to 72 and
still there are no signs of revival and turnaround.
Well, How
can a sector or a leading stock in a sector make a bottom when
political noises are for free power and no tariff revision. Add messy
coal policy and we have a total recipe for disaster as far as Power
sector is concerned. Tata Power stock will continue suffer as long as
these voices remain loud.
"We
don't only tell you what stocks did, we tell you why, and we tell you
where stocks are headed next. How? By tracking the psychology of the
markets, tracking patterns and indicators that reveal where stock prices
are trending, giving us high probability trade opportunities."
We
invite you to become Premium member of the website and get access to
all our recommendations. WE just charge 2500 rs/pm .To join us plz mail
us to trendzofmarket@gmail.com
Here’s one breakout that seems to have shocked everyone with its vertical up move
The Stock is Aurobindo Pharma
TRENDZOFMARKET COVERED THE STOCK AT 195 AND 205 TO BUY THIS STOCK FOR MEGA GIANS
HERE IS MY BUY CALLS FEW MONTHS BACK
http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/10/aurobindo-pharma-stock-can-test-280-300.html
SEE WHERE THE STOCK IS NOW HIT 502 TODAY MORNING STUNNING 240% MOVE IN JUST 3 MONTHS TIME YOU CAN GET SUCH CALLS ONLY FROM TRENDZOFMARKET
Here’s the Weekly chart of Aurobindo Pharma
As you
can see in the chart above: there was a well defined resistance of
201-205 before October 2013. The stock then broke out above 201-205 and
resulted in vertical upmove. From levels of 205 – the stock zoomed to
490 i.e. 1.5x in less than 4 months. That’s what breakouts do if you
catch them at right spot and stay with them little longer.
Remember, all break outs do not take vertical path. There are many that consolidate for weeks and months before taking off.
"We
don't only tell you what stocks did, we tell you why, and we tell you
where stocks are headed next. How? By tracking the psychology of the
markets, tracking patterns and indicators that reveal where stock prices
are trending, giving us high probability trade opportunities."
We
invite you to become Premium member of the website and get access to
all our recommendations. WE just charge 2500 rs/pm .To join us plz mail
us to trendzofmarket@gmail.com
This is what happens when a long standing support cracks
Panic Sell off
Trading Rule: When one level cracks – then market races to the next level of support. That support stands at 200 dma.
S&P500
had a dream run for last many many months and it never cracked even
below 100 dma during that period. But with market now cracking below 100
dma: expect total bearish pressure on markets. Today we saw dramatic
selling in US market. Buy the dip crowd will now give way to sell on
rallies crowd. We are going to witness a different market over next few
weeks and hence be careful.
Remember,
when markets break down: No support is good enough to stand the bearish
force. We have been cautioning on a market for a while and now its time
to just stand aside and let the bearish force play itself out.
S&P500 despite all the bearishness is holding up well. Here’s why
Here’s the Daily Chart of S&P500
As you
can see in the chart above: S&P500 seems to have strong Horizontal
support at 1770. First, in October – it took a while for index to break
past 1770 and when it did that in Nov – it never looked back. Post
breakout: index consolidated a lot above 1770 and then in December,
S&P500 managed a stunning recovery from 1767 all the way to 1850.
Now, it has pulled back pretty violently but again seems to be holding
its head above 1770 despite all the bearishness.
That’s not all: the current Horizontal support level also converges with 100 dma: the solid support level of 2013
As you can
see in the chart above: S&P500 during 2013 managed to hold its head
above 100 dma every time index pulled back. It seems to be doing the
same now – trying its best to hold 100 dma. Will it succeed? We will
wait and see. Rest assured breakdown below 100 dma will lead to panic
and S&P500 can slide all the way to 200 dma i.e. 1706. So, that’s
why the current level seems a very interesting place to watch the
market.
OUR PREVIOUS REPORT ON S&P:
http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2014/01/after-brutal-friday-correction-where-is.html
We invite you to become Premium member of the website and get access to many more Breakout Opportunities that may come this
year. WE just charge 2500 rs/pm .To join us plz mail us to trendzofmarket@gmail.com
HITS & MISSES = JANUARY 2014
TOTAL PROFIT THIS MONTH IN f&O
ALONE: 4,09,350 RS
Total
NUMBER OF CALLS:23
HITS: 22 MISSES: 1
HITS:
1. CALL OF THE MONTH: BUY
ARVIND @ 140 SL 137.50 TGT 149-160 LOT SIZE 4000 HIT 148.70 PROFIT 34800 RS
AGAIN
GIVEN BUY ON JAN 3
TO BUY AT 141 FOR TGT 149 -155SL 137.50 HIT 153.05.
PROFIT 48000 RS
AGAIN
GIVEN BUY ON 20/01/2014
BUY ARVIND AT 139.15 SL 137 TGT 145-147 LOT
SIZE 4000 HIT 147 PROFIT 31400 RS
TOTAL
PROFIT =34800+48000+31400=1, 14,200 RS
2. CALL OF THE
MONTH: BTST BUY KTK BANK @ 111 TGT 125
SL 102 HIT 118.30 PROFIT 29200 RS
KTK BANK AGAIN GIVEN BUY @ 109 ON DEC 2 BTST HIT 112 PROFIT
12000 RS=TOTAL PROFIT 41200 RS
3. CALL OF THE MONTH: BUY RANBAXY @ 465 SL 440 TGT 500-525
LOT SIZE 1000 HIT 495 PROFIT 30000 RS
4. CALL OF THE MONTH: BUY WIPRO @ 520 SL 505 TGT 540-570 LOT
SIZE 500 ALL TGT MET PROFIT 25000 RS
5. SELL UNITECH @ 14.40 SL 14.80 TGT 10-9 HIT 11.80 LOT SIZE
12000 PROFIT 31400 RS
FUTURES & OPTIONS
1. BUY ASIAN PAINTS @ 486 TGT 520 LOT SIZE 500 HIT 510 PROFIT 12500 RS
2. BUY MCDOWELLS @ 2578
LOT SIZE 125 TGT 2650-2700 HIT ALL TGT
PROFIT 15250 RS
3. BUY MCDOWELLS 2 2710
TGT 2900-3000 LOT SIZE 125 HIT 2825 PROFIT 12500 RS
4. SELL UPL @ 215.50 SL
217.50 TGT 205-200 LOT SIZE 2000 TGT HIT IN 2 WEEKS PROFIT 31000 RS
5. SELL ACC 1075 SL 1100
TGT 1010 LOT SIZE 250 target HIT 1010 PROFIT 16250 RS
6. BUY M&M @ 875-878
SL 860 TGT 930-950 LOT SIZE 2509 HIT 918 PROFIT 10500 RS
7. BUY 500 BERGER PAINT @
212 SL 205 TGT 230-250 HIT 224 PROFIT 6000
RS
8. BUY HAVELLS@ 771 TGT
830-850 LOT SIZE 500 HIT 815 PROFIT
22000 RS
9. BUY MDCOWELS @ 2680SL
2645 TGT 2750-2800-2850 LOT SIZE 125 HIT 2744 PROFIT 8000 RS
10.
PAIR TRADE BUY NIFTY FUT @ 6050 LOT 10 QTY 500 AND BUY 6050 PE 500 QTY @ 10
RS PROFIT 9000 RS
11.
BUY BHEL FEB FUT AT 157 TGT 162-165 LOT SIZE 2000 HIT 163
PROFIT 12800 RS
12. BUY TECHMAHINDRA @ 1765 SL 1735 TGT 1815 LOT SIZE 250 HIT 1812 INTRA PROFIT 11750
MISSES:
1.
BUY GIC HOUSING 112 SL
108 TGT 125 SL HIT
2.
CASH CALL
MOST OF THE CASH
CALLS THIS MONTH GIVEN TO PAID CLIENTS HAVE NOT MOVED UP SIGNIFICANLTY SO CAN’T
BE PUBLISHED IN THE BLOG
1.
BUY CADILA HELATH CARE @ 776 TGT 830- 900 BOTH TARGET ACHIVED
2.
BUY NBCC @ 161 SL 148
TGT 174 HIT INTRADAY
3.
BUY SHARON BIOTECH @
340 HIT 440
4.
BUY MIRZA @ 27 TGT
32-35 HIT 37
5.
BUY SELAN @ 330 SL
314.95 HIT 395
6.
BUY INFOSYS AT 3340 HIT
3800
7.
BUY SASKEN @ 145 HIT
225 UP MORE THAN 60 % IN 2 MONTHS
8. BUY JUST DIAL @ 1145 HIT 1777 UP MORE THAN 50% IN ONE AND HALF MONTH
9.BUY CIPLA @ 375 TGT 420 ACHIVED
10. BUY NIIT TECH @ 305 HIT 420
(I HAVE NOT CALCULATED THE PROFITS MADE IN
CASH CALLS AS I HAVE NOT INDICATED QUATITY)
