HITS & MISSES -JANUARY 2014

HITS & MISSES = JANUARY 2014

 
TOTAL PROFIT THIS MONTH IN f&O ALONE: 4,09,350 RS

Total NUMBER OF CALLS:23
HITS:  22   MISSES:     1

 HITS:



1.  CALL OF THE MONTH: BUY ARVIND @ 140 SL 137.50 TGT 149-160 LOT SIZE 4000 HIT 148.70 PROFIT 34800  RS

AGAIN GIVEN BUY ON JAN 3

 TO BUY AT 141 FOR TGT 149 -155SL 137.50 HIT 153.05. PROFIT 48000 RS

AGAIN GIVEN BUY ON 20/01/2014

 BUY ARVIND AT 139.15 SL 137 TGT 145-147 LOT SIZE 4000 HIT 147 PROFIT 31400 RS

TOTAL PROFIT =34800+48000+31400=1, 14,200 RS



2.   CALL OF THE MONTH:  BTST BUY KTK BANK @ 111 TGT 125 SL 102   HIT 118.30 PROFIT 29200 RS

KTK BANK AGAIN GIVEN BUY @ 109 ON DEC 2 BTST HIT 112 PROFIT 12000 RS=TOTAL PROFIT 41200 RS

3. CALL OF THE MONTH: BUY RANBAXY @ 465 SL 440 TGT 500-525 LOT SIZE 1000 HIT 495 PROFIT 30000 RS

4. CALL OF THE MONTH: BUY WIPRO @ 520 SL 505 TGT 540-570 LOT SIZE 500 ALL TGT MET PROFIT 25000 RS

5. SELL UNITECH @ 14.40 SL 14.80 TGT 10-9 HIT 11.80 LOT SIZE 12000 PROFIT 31400 RS


                                 FUTURES & OPTIONS

                                                                                                                       

  

1.     BUY  ASIAN PAINTS @ 486 TGT 520  LOT SIZE  500 HIT 510 PROFIT 12500 RS

2.     BUY MCDOWELLS @ 2578 LOT SIZE 125  TGT 2650-2700 HIT ALL TGT PROFIT 15250 RS

3.     BUY MCDOWELLS 2 2710 TGT 2900-3000  LOT SIZE 125 HIT 2825  PROFIT 12500 RS

4.     SELL UPL @ 215.50 SL 217.50 TGT 205-200 LOT SIZE 2000 TGT HIT IN 2 WEEKS PROFIT 31000 RS

5.     SELL ACC 1075 SL 1100 TGT 1010  LOT SIZE 250 target  HIT 1010 PROFIT 16250 RS

6.     BUY M&M @ 875-878 SL 860 TGT 930-950  LOT SIZE 2509  HIT 918 PROFIT 10500 RS

7.     BUY 500 BERGER PAINT @ 212 SL 205 TGT 230-250 HIT 224  PROFIT 6000 RS

8.     BUY HAVELLS@ 771 TGT 830-850  LOT SIZE 500 HIT 815 PROFIT 22000 RS

9.     BUY MDCOWELS @ 2680SL 2645 TGT 2750-2800-2850 LOT SIZE 125 HIT 2744 PROFIT 8000 RS

10.     PAIR TRADE BUY NIFTY FUT @ 6050  LOT 10 QTY 500 AND BUY 6050 PE 500 QTY @ 10 RS PROFIT 9000 RS

11.      BUY BHEL FEB FUT AT 157 TGT 162-165 LOT SIZE 2000 HIT 163 PROFIT 12800 RS
12.  BUY TECHMAHINDRA @ 1765 SL 1735 TGT 1815 LOT SIZE 250  HIT 1812 INTRA PROFIT 11750 





                                              MISSES:

1.     BUY GIC HOUSING 112 SL 108  TGT 125 SL HIT

2.      







                                    CASH CALL

  MOST OF THE CASH CALLS THIS MONTH GIVEN TO PAID CLIENTS HAVE NOT MOVED UP SIGNIFICANLTY SO CAN’T BE PUBLISHED IN THE BLOG

1.      BUY  CADILA HELATH CARE @ 776  TGT 830- 900  BOTH TARGET   ACHIVED

2.      BUY NBCC @ 161 SL 148 TGT 174 HIT INTRADAY

3.      BUY SHARON BIOTECH @ 340 HIT 440

4.      BUY MIRZA @ 27 TGT 32-35 HIT 37

5.      BUY SELAN @ 330 SL 314.95  HIT 395

6.      BUY INFOSYS AT 3340 HIT 3800

7.      BUY SASKEN @ 145 HIT 225 UP MORE THAN 60 % IN 2 MONTHS

8.   BUY JUST DIAL @ 1145 HIT 1777 UP MORE THAN 50% IN ONE AND HALF MONTH

9.BUY CIPLA @ 375 TGT 420 ACHIVED

10. BUY NIIT TECH @  305 HIT 420







 (I HAVE NOT CALCULATED THE PROFITS MADE IN CASH CALLS AS I HAVE NOT INDICATED QUATITY)

NIFTY & S&P 500 HOW TO TRADE ON A SLIPPERY ROAD

Market Conditions have dramatically deteriorated in last few days globally with emerging markets in total turmoil. Let’s have a look at S&P500 and Nifty.

S&P500 – Now at 100 day Support

2013 was a great year for S&P500. It did well to hold 100 dma and every decline turned out excellent buying opportunity. In 2014 – now S&P500 has once again pulled back to 100 dma but this time the way sell off has happened: there is apprehension whether this level will hold or not. There are concerns that Global economy is not holding well and S&P500 can see a deeper pullback.Here is my post explaining that explains various scenario
http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2014/01/after-brutal-friday-correction-where-is.html.
 Right now: it would be better to wait and watch for little clarity. Any trade at this juncture should be taken with tight stop losses. My gut feel: we will hang around above 100 dma for few days before dramatically selling off.

Nifty: Can it hold up Nov lows?

Nifty has been totally trendless. The only issue before traders: Can Nifty breakout above 6380-6400. Below it: Nifty does not offer any trading direction. The real excitement has been in midcaps. But we all know by past experience that for midcap to perform – Nifty needs to be stable. At this point of time: one can draw that comfort boundary at 5972: the level it has held since November 2012. But trust me – If Nifty breaks 5972 on Global panic – there will be total chaos in broader market and hence one should be little careful.

Here’s my take
Right now I have no idea which way market is going to move. This may turn out to be excellent support or this may be the start of something vicious on the downside. We all can make a guess. But in trading, it is better to follow this rule: “When in doubt, stay out”. Just watch the market action for few days and then one can take a call on what one should do.

WILL TATAGLOBAL MELT TO 125 AFTER RESULTS?

SELL TATA GLOBAL fut @ 143.50 SL 145.2 

TGT 133-135 Today possible (Lot size 2000)

Technically Stock has given Breakdown

"We don't only tell you what stocks did, we tell you why, and we tell you where stocks are headed next. How? By tracking the psychology of the markets, tracking patterns and indicators that reveal where stock prices are trending, giving us high probability trade opportunities."
We invite you to become Premium member of the website and get access to all our recommendations. WE just charge 2500 rs/pm .To join us plz mail us to trendzofmarket@gmail.com 

After Brutal Friday Correction : Where is the Support Level for S&P 500

Last time the S&P 500 opened at the high and closed at the low of the day was over two years ago (11/23/11)

S&P DAILY CHART

 

THE BIG QUESTION 

 WHAT IF THERE IS A DEEPER CORRECTION?

S&P 500 WEEKLY CHART

 DEEPER CORRECTION

STILL IN BREAK OUT BULL MARKET

THE BIG QUESTION?

SUMMARY

ON MONDAY S&P  HIT 1775 AND YESTERDAY MANGED TO GIVE A BOUNCE  BACK TO 1792

 

TAKE ONE LEVELS AT AT TIME NOW WE CAN ASSUME S&P WILL TAKE SUPPORT AT 1760-1775 IF ITS BREAK THEN 50 WEEK MOVING AVG AT 1680 WILL ACT AS A VERY STRONG SUPPORT IF THAT TOO IS GONE THEN A DRAMATIC 16% FALL IS ON CARDS WE DON'T KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN SO LETS FOCUS ON  S&P LEVELS AS ITS A LEADING GLOBAL INDICATOR

 

STRATEGY TO BE SUCCESSFUL IN A BREAK OUT STOCK

Here’s a small write up on the subject.

In Trading/Investing:  There are always times when following questions confront us:
1. Should we hold on to existing PROFITABLE investment/trading position considering risky market environment?
2. Should we use this risky period to buy a stock that we always wanted to buy?
3. Should we exit on recently entered trades which is already in deep loss?
All these are good questions but very difficult to answer. There is no right answer. There are only choices and consequences.
There is time to BUY AND RIDE and there is time to SIT TIGHT. Corrections are healthy in markets and should not scare one but sometimes market corrections are so brutal that it does create doubt on what may happen next. It is during these times we end up taking trades which we regret later. Last few days of selling has been pretty brutal and it has created enormous doubt on the health of the market. No one knows – Is this the start of correction or we are done with it?
The problem: How to make decisions in this environment.
Let me give you one illustration. Trading is like driving a  car. The car being the stock and the road being the market condition.

This was the road condition for last 3 months

It was clear and sunny market conditions. All you had to do was pick a right stock and ride it as long as you want. The risks were far and few and skillful stock selections were giving impressive returns. Since driving condition was good, more and more high performance cars were getting launched and it was creating excitement among investors and market was rewarding them with great performance.
Also, it was not as if weather conditions were not changing. Dark clouds used to gather but they used to clear out in no time. BUT Now, that’s not the case.
The corrections of last one week has changed the weather and road conditions pretty dramatically. 

Current Condition: This is what you see on your windshield when you drive

 

You know there is a road ahead. You can be confident of conditions ahead but the fact is – you cannot see ahead clearly and the risks have increased manyfold if you stay on road. Your car (stock) can be excellent but road and weather conditions can impact your car adversely. Generally, what is the most sensible thing to do in such an environment: Drive slowly (Reduce profitable positions) and if possible: Get off the road (Liquidate loss making positions completely). And if you are at home/office: wait for the weather to clear up before venturing out on the road. It means sit tight and not take fresh positions. Also, Bad market conditions mean uncharitable market behavior. Just look at the way how stocks are cracking – correcting 10%-15% just like that on small bad news. Just visualize car skidding on the road. Generally, it is this kind of environment that damages a person psychologically more than financially. It reduces your confidence to trade. 
I am not saying that you should completely exit the market. If you have a position where your conviction is very high and you are in profit – you can decide to ride and brave the weather out. It’s all judgment call one has to take. I am also not saying that one should not take trades with proper setups but one should be very careful of the risks involved in current market condition. The objective of writing this article was to give a psychological twist to managing trading and investment positions.

The best thing to do right now: OBSERVE VARIOUS BREAK OUT STOCKS  and see how they are behaving. Which one of them showing strength and which one showing weakness. It will help you focus on right stocks when weather improves.

"We don't only tell you what stocks did, we tell you why, and we tell you where stocks are headed next. How? By tracking the psychology of the markets, tracking patterns and indicators that reveal where stock prices are trending, giving us high probability trade opportunities."
We invite you to become Premium member of the website and get access to all our recommendations. WE just charge 2500 rs/pm .To join us plz mail us to trendzofmarket@gmail.com  

INVESTMENT BUY:BERGER PAINT

BUY BERGER PAINT 

TIME JAN 10 12.23 

BUY 500 BERGER PAINT  CMP 212  SL 205 ON CLOSING BASIC TGT 230-250

berger paint hit  225.50:) PROFIT 6750 RS 

.We invite you to become Premium member of the website and get access to  many more Breakout Opportunities that may come this year. WE just charge 2500 rs/pm .To join us plz mail us to trendzofmarket@gmail.com

SELAN: A STOCK READY TO EXPLODE

SELAN AS EXPECTED EXPLODED  TOLD TO BUY AT 320-330  ON JAN 18 TH  IN JUST 2 WEEKS STOCK EXPLODED AND HIT 464 WHOPPING 42% MOVE 

HERE WAS MY UPDATE ON JAN 18 TH 

Selan Exploration stock after a long time seems ready to explode

Here’s the Selan Exploration Weekly Chart

 As you can see in the chart above – Selan Exploration stock struggled to cross the trendline for years now. But this week – finally stock has broken out above the trendline and seems ready to run. The good thing: the breakout seems backed by volumes.
 The stock appears BUY with a closing stop loss below 314.9.

FEW FUNDAMENTAL REASON 

Note:Trying to pen in most simple words.Please read it meticulously and understand why you need to buy the stock.

Story:Selan Exploration is into exploration & production of oil & gas.It currently operates 5 small fields in Cambay onshore-Lohar, Bakrol, Indrora, Ognaj and Karjisan.These oil fields were awarded to the company in 1995-2000 under a Production Sharing Contract (PSC) with 100% participating interest by the Government of India.Selan was subsequently awarded two more fields in Gujarat namely Ognaj Oilfield and Karjisan Gas field.In-place resource stands at 73 mmbbl(million barrels)& 7 mmbbl in Bakrol & Lohar respectively.Production level is currently at ~660 bpd(barrels per day).The company sells its crude output to Indian oil at a discount of 5% to Brent.Five points to qualify Selan exploration as a great medium to long term buy.

1)As of now, the company is producing oil from only 2 fields,Bakrol & Lohar.Management has also indicated that Indrora Oilfield contain far larger quantities of recoverable oil than Bakrol.Let us conservatively assume 100 Million Barrels of Oil Reserves under Selan.Selan's reserve would get valued at many a thousand crores.Selan recently has completed drilling of 2 wells, commercial production is expected to happen any day now.Further drilling is also going on.Company has a marketcap of only 500crs.It delivered a revenue of 97crs and PAT of 45crs respectively for the last fiscal 2012-13.

2)Previously, the technology recovery rate of exploration activities was ranging from 10-20% from the total potential reserves in Gujarat.But with the latest technology implementation of 3D contour mapping this recovery rate has gone up to as high as 50-60% for the similar fields.Contour mapping is just like a magnetic resonance imaging(MRI) scan of a human body.Stunning management quality and they are committed to make huge amount of shareholders wealth in the coming years.It buybacks(7 buybacks in the last 10 years),it allots warrants,it generates huge amount of cash,it has got a wonderful under leveraged balance sheet.Selan is one sure shot winner for the longer run.

3)Numbers has been flattish so far over the last few years as it was consolidating its resources and investing a lot in its proven fields.Over the next few quarters the company would actually be in a position to ramp up production massively and deliver an EPS of 60(2014-15).Value it as per the sector and the valuation would be in 4 digits.Even if at the present juncture we see the valuation of selan;EV/reserves of less than 1,marketcap to sales of around 5 with high double digit return ratios,its the cheapest oil exploration company in the bourses.

4)Selan's production cost is $11 per barrel, which is reasonably low.Company pays $5 per barrel as Royalty to the government.The stock has delivered an annualized return of over 41% from 2003 to till date,much superior to the broader market(Selan was at 10rs 10 years ago).Hell,its even higher than what "Warren Buffet Sahab"s berkshire hathaway delivered in the same period.In my view creating and delivering shareholder value has been well handled by Selan. Selan is now all set to start the process of returning value to shareholders while they continue the value creation process.

5)Crude oil demand is projected to increase to about 1600-1800 mn barrels per year. Rising global crude oil prices have triggered increased domestic exploration and production activity.All this factors makes Selan a big beneficiary and helps one to have a lot of conviction on the stock.Selan posses robust fundamentals,amazing pedigree quality,mind boggling prospects,low business risk.Over the next few quarters it can have a production level of about four to five lakh barrels per year, which can lead to a cash flow of over Rs 150 crore.Have put a 8 times forward earnings to arrive at the target price.Selan is a stock which can be kept for lifetime.Make it a part of your core portfolio folks.
 

.We invite you to become Premium member of the website and get access to  many more Breakout Opportunities that may come this year. WE just charge 2500 rs/pm .To join us plz mail us to trendzofmarket@gmial.com