IS GE SHIPPING GETTING READY FOR BIG 40 % MOVE?

Is GE Shipping Buy, Sell or Avoid? Well – Here’s what charts are saying

GE Shipping Weekly Chart

 

As you can see in the chart above: GE Shipping bottomed out much before market. It formed a base and then made a stunning up move for weeks. The rally from 210 to 290 appears quite strong and has come on back of improvement in sentiment on all shipping stocks globally – thanks to turnaround in China growth. Just look at the Baltic Dry Index weekly chart – a measure of shipping rates and how it has broken out in recent past

 

Shipping stocks have become investors favorite globally and that might be helping GE Shipping, but here’s the problem. We don’t know whether this is just one off rally more like mean reversion move or this turnaround is for real and long lasting. Remember GE Shipping has not made any real sustainable move since 2011 and all rallies have terminated at 300. See the weekly chart below

Can it be different this time?
We don’t know yet. Today GE Shipping was down and closed at 280. On Weekly chart – GE Shipping has started doing Bullish Consolidation i.e. it is not selling off at resistance but has turned sideways and absorbing all the supply. Technically, that’s positive and stocks generally lead to breakout on the upside.

How should one play?
Assume that GE Shipping is not done with the upside and stock still has significant upside left. Also, Assume that since stock made a big 38% move recently – it may do long consolidation i.e. stock may do nothing for weeks before making fresh move. And based on this assumption – one can build long position on declines near 275 with stop loss below 264 and target of 40% up move. The only issue – you may have to wait for weeks before stock makes a move and can be frustrating.ONLY GET INTO THIS STOCK IF YOU HAVE REAL PATIENCE AND IF YOU ARE READY TO WAIT AND GET FRUSTRATED .PATIENCE WILL PAY

 

FLAG BREAK OUT IN SESA GOA

Sesa Goa has broken out of Bullish Pennant Pattern and it does not surprise . I had covered the stock a month back to buy at 175 stock now crosses 194 still look highly bullish
http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/09/is-sesagoa-turning-around.html 

LETS CHECK THE NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE STOCK 

What is a Bullish Pennant Pattern?

A continuation pattern in technical analysis formed when there is a large movement in a stock, the flagpole, followed by a consolidation period with converging trendlines, the pennant, followed by a breakout movement in the same direction as the initial large movement, the second half of the flagpole ~ As per Investopedia

Technical Characteristics:

Formation of Flagpole: To be considered a continuation pattern, there should be evidence of a prior trend. A sharp advance is must before the formation of pennant. The Sharp advance looks like a Flagpole

Pennant: A pennant is a small symmetrical triangle that begins wide and converges as the pattern matures. The price action remains within the converging trend lines. pennants are short-term patterns that can last from 1 to 12 weeks
Once a pattern is in place – one should watch for Breakout from the Pennant.

Here’s the Sesa Goa Chart doing the same

 

 There is a Flagpole and formation of pennant from which stock broke out this week and on good volumes. The stock can shock on the upside. The breakout is not surprising and I covered the stock a month back.

http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/09/is-sesagoa-turning-around.html 

HOW TO TRADE ULTRA TECH CEMENT AHEAD OF ITS RESULTS

VERY WEAK RESULTS BY ULTRATECH CEMENTS !! AS EXPECTED ;-)
profit.ndtv.com/news/corporates/article-ultratech-cement-q2-profit-halves-on-subdued-demand-369897 …

MAIL SENT TO CLIENTS FRIDAY AFTER NOON
HOW TO TRADE
ULTRA TECH CEMENT AHEAD OF ITS RESULTS TOMORROW

AS  SL IS NEARLY 90 RS AWAY IT VERY RISKY TO SHORT IN FUT
HIGH RISK TRADERS CAN  SELL AT CMP 1990  TGT 1800-1700 SL 2075  IF SL HIT LOSS WOULD BE 10000 RS SO ITS ONLY ADVISABLE FOR VERY HIGH RISK TRADERS

REWARD WILL BE LESSER   TRADERS PLZ BUY 1900 PE CMP 18 RS LOT SIZE 125   SL WILL BE 2075 IN CASH MARKET

TATA STEEL HEAD AND SHOULDER BREAK OUT

MSG GIVEN TO CLINETS 1 HOUR BACK TO BUY

BUY TATA STEEL 330 CA @ 6.26 SL CLOSE BELOW 308 IN CASH  TGT 10-15 LOT SIZE 1000

WHILE UPDATING THIS BLOG 33A CA  ALMOST HIT MY FIRST TARGET  HIT 9.60 
 

HOW TO TRADE HCL TECH AHEAD OF RESULTS

TOLD TO SELL AROUND 1170-1180   LOT SIZE 500 NOW HIT 1125  GIVING 22500 RS PROFIT

MAIL SENT TO CLIENTS ON HOW TO TRADE HCL TECH AHEAD OF IT RESULTS ON TUESDAY

HCL Tech has Topped out .. Today's High SL , Sell for 1130-1120 Tgt Ahead of results on 17

HIGH RISK TRADERS CAN SELL IN FUT  LOW RISK TRADERS BUY 1100 PE @ 16 RS LOT SIZE 500 

 

 

BUY INDIABULLS SECURITES FOR 50 % RALLY

BUY INDIA BULL SECURITIES ABV 13 ON CLOSING FOR  TARGET 18- 20 IN  MEDIUM TERM

Amazin Journey of USD INR from Lows of 39 to Highs of 69

USDINR has gone through dramatic ups and downs in last 6 years. Let’s have a look

Here’s the weekly Chart of USDINR back in 2007-2010 period

 

Source: Chartalert.com

In 2007, everything was going India’s way. USDINR was trading at 39. FIIs were pumping money like there is no tomorrow. But 2008 subprime turbulence disrupted the momentum pretty badly. Equity market started selling off and FIIs were on SELL mode. It did impact currency market and INR depreciated from 39 to 43 by middle of the year in 2008. Nothing catastrophic. People were still bullish on India. Though Technically, USDINR was above 100 week moving average; and INR looked vulnerable. BUT then came Lehman crisis – and it just broke the back of both currency and equity markets. USDINR zoomed from 100 week ma and 42 all the way to 52 by March 2009. It was a 24% depreciation in less than 9 months. That was first major depreciation India saw after a long long time. 
The depreciation peaked with Ben Bernance green shoots remarks. Early recovery in Global markets helped INR appreciate from 52 to 49. The INR got another bullish dose with UPA Government coming back to power with more majority. INR from 52 in March 2009 appreciated to 47 by end May 2009; and 44 by March 2010. Lehman crisis looked like a small bad dream. Again India was back and things were looking up. Every Heads of state around the world were making India visit with large business delegation with Obama visit scheduled in Nov 2010.
Reality Check: INFLATION, CORRUPTION, BAD GOVERNANCE (This is INDIA) 

Equity market reversed pretty dramatically in Nov 2010 but it took a while to see the impact in currency market. USDINR made a base at 44 for long time before breaking out in August 2011 and making a new HIGH of 53.5 by Dec 2011. Indian story just turned nightmarish for everyone

 

The above weekly chart captures the dramatic depreciation of USDINR between July 2011 and July 2012. It was a depreciation of about 30% in 12 months. And YES this was worse than Lehman and it was real. 
FORMATION OF TRIANGLE PATTERN:

 

Then, between July 2012 and May 2013: a triangle pattern was getting formed. Though it was a continuation pattern but lots of folks were turning optimistic on reform measures announcement by Government. Nobody knew which way it would break. Ben Bernanke Taper remarks helped and USDINR broke out on the upside and had a blow out move from 57 to 69 ~ a move of 22% in less than 3.5 months.
But with change of guard at RBI and delay in QE tapering, INR has pulled back from panic lows of 68-69. But the big question: Can the reversal sustain?
ROAD AHEAD
USDINR has pulled back substantially from panic levels of 68-69. But with two major risk events ahead: 1. Indian elections; and 2. US Fed Exit from QE, one cannot be very optimistic on INR. At this point of time, we can assume that near term panic is behind us but a higher base at 57-60 has been set for USDINR. On panics, we don’t know where USDINR can go. Remember, INR is in Long Term Bear Market which means it still is Sell on Rally.