BUY INDIABULLS SECURITES FOR 50 % RALLY

BUY INDIA BULL SECURITIES ABV 13 ON CLOSING FOR  TARGET 18- 20 IN  MEDIUM TERM

Amazin Journey of USD INR from Lows of 39 to Highs of 69

USDINR has gone through dramatic ups and downs in last 6 years. Let’s have a look

Here’s the weekly Chart of USDINR back in 2007-2010 period

 

Source: Chartalert.com

In 2007, everything was going India’s way. USDINR was trading at 39. FIIs were pumping money like there is no tomorrow. But 2008 subprime turbulence disrupted the momentum pretty badly. Equity market started selling off and FIIs were on SELL mode. It did impact currency market and INR depreciated from 39 to 43 by middle of the year in 2008. Nothing catastrophic. People were still bullish on India. Though Technically, USDINR was above 100 week moving average; and INR looked vulnerable. BUT then came Lehman crisis – and it just broke the back of both currency and equity markets. USDINR zoomed from 100 week ma and 42 all the way to 52 by March 2009. It was a 24% depreciation in less than 9 months. That was first major depreciation India saw after a long long time. 
The depreciation peaked with Ben Bernance green shoots remarks. Early recovery in Global markets helped INR appreciate from 52 to 49. The INR got another bullish dose with UPA Government coming back to power with more majority. INR from 52 in March 2009 appreciated to 47 by end May 2009; and 44 by March 2010. Lehman crisis looked like a small bad dream. Again India was back and things were looking up. Every Heads of state around the world were making India visit with large business delegation with Obama visit scheduled in Nov 2010.
Reality Check: INFLATION, CORRUPTION, BAD GOVERNANCE (This is INDIA) 

Equity market reversed pretty dramatically in Nov 2010 but it took a while to see the impact in currency market. USDINR made a base at 44 for long time before breaking out in August 2011 and making a new HIGH of 53.5 by Dec 2011. Indian story just turned nightmarish for everyone

 

The above weekly chart captures the dramatic depreciation of USDINR between July 2011 and July 2012. It was a depreciation of about 30% in 12 months. And YES this was worse than Lehman and it was real. 
FORMATION OF TRIANGLE PATTERN:

 

Then, between July 2012 and May 2013: a triangle pattern was getting formed. Though it was a continuation pattern but lots of folks were turning optimistic on reform measures announcement by Government. Nobody knew which way it would break. Ben Bernanke Taper remarks helped and USDINR broke out on the upside and had a blow out move from 57 to 69 ~ a move of 22% in less than 3.5 months.
But with change of guard at RBI and delay in QE tapering, INR has pulled back from panic lows of 68-69. But the big question: Can the reversal sustain?
ROAD AHEAD
USDINR has pulled back substantially from panic levels of 68-69. But with two major risk events ahead: 1. Indian elections; and 2. US Fed Exit from QE, one cannot be very optimistic on INR. At this point of time, we can assume that near term panic is behind us but a higher base at 57-60 has been set for USDINR. On panics, we don’t know where USDINR can go. Remember, INR is in Long Term Bear Market which means it still is Sell on Rally.

TASTE MONEY IN THIS TEA STOCK; MCLOED RUSSEL

MAIL SENT TO CLIENTS ON OCT 8
UPDATED ON  MY PAGE  2 DAYS BACK ABOUT A TEA STOCK HOPE ALL U REMEMEBER?
THIS WAS MY MAIL

KEEP STRICT SL
BUYMCLOED RUSSEL TOMMROW  IN FUT  BETWEEN 266- 268 TODAY CLOSED AT 271  264 SL TGT 280 IN 2 DAYS AND 300 IN ST HOT STOCK NOW FOR SHORT TERM

SMALL CAP BET:SONATA SOFTWARE

Sonata Software – Interesting Small Cap IT company

 

Technically the stock was facing a lot of resistance around 30 for last many months and with 3-4 attempts.

Today the stock has finally crossed above 30-31 band and seems headed to 35 in the short term and maybe even towards 45.
The dividend yield also is pretty interesting and a decent history too.

 

 

 

SMALL CAP& MIDCAP MADNESS STARTED

Have been seeing some good action in Some midcaps & smallcaps Stocks ...Although my Focus remains mainly on F&O scripts but I like to keep a tab on Non F&O scripts as well ...Like ING vysya Bank  &  L&T finance have given decent 40-50% returns in just 1& half months ...

Here are a Few Stocks That Gave good Moves in Last few days

Ester Industries

 

                                      Hinduja Global 

 

                                                LOVABLE

  

                                         SHYAM TELECOM

  

Some Stocks You can look forward to trade in are GIC housing & Anant Raj (Posing Chart below)

  
 

BUY IDEA FOR SHORT TERM

BUY IDEA FOR SHORT TERM BETWEEN 178- 182 LEVELS TGT 190- 200  SL 173

BUY SUN TV FOR455-490

MESSAGE ALREADY GIVEN TO PAID CLIENTS 2 DAYS BACK

THIS WAS THE MAIL SENT

SUN TV – A nice symmetrical triangle breakout today with decent volumes. Would have preferred much more volumes with such a move.
Was range bound for quite some time. Can expect a quick move to 455/490. Buy on dips between 420-425 levels .Stop losses now at 410  on closing basis lot size 500

OUR CLIENTS ENTERED STOCK AT 425 TODAY MORNING STOCK HIT  440 ALREDY IN 7500 RS PROFIT