Nifty at Support or Resistance?

Here’s what weekly chart tells us

What does long tail at 200 week moving average signify? – SUPPORT

Contrary to popular perception – Nifty has been in steady uptrend since January 2012 post bottom formation around 4600. 
The Jan-Feb 2012 Rally (AB): In just 7 weeks in Jan-Feb 2012 – Nifty rallied from 4600 to 5600. It was a quick 21% rally.
Corrective Pullback (BC): The quick euphoria waned and Nifty lost its way and declined from 5600 to 200 week ma by end May 2012.
Took Support and Rallied (DE): Nifty took the support at 200 week ma and rallied again from 4800 all the way to 6200 between June 2012 and May 2013. That was an impressive rally of 29% in a year.
Corrective Pullback from 6200 (E): Nifty once again started correcting and in just 3 months – came down from 6200 to 5500 by August 16 2013. The level of 5500 had acted as support in 2013 and hence there was nothing out of place and too bearish. 
The Period of CONFUSION: Last Two weeks
The period of confusion has come in last two weeks when Nifty dramatically broke down below 5500. Post Breakdown – there was sharp sell off and equally sharp pullback resulting in two long legged doji formation.  Doji represent anxiety, confusion and indecisiveness. Technically, on a weekly chart – the print represents indecisiveness above 200 week ma with two massive short covering from lows. 
The Big question: Has market sold off enough at large cap level to stage a comeback? 
On a weekly chart, the answer can be “may be” but if you scratch the surface, scan the fundamentals and look ahead – there is no case to buy the market. The level of 5500 looks like a tough resistance for Nifty to cross and not support.

CAN PIPAV RECOVER FROM 50- 52

BREAK OUT STOCK :HINDZINC

FRESH BREAK OUT STOCK BUY HIND ZINC ABOVE 122 SL 117.50 TARGET 140-145

HITS & MISSES: AUGUST

        HITS AND MISSES AUGUST

TOTAL PROFIT THIS MONTH IN f&O ALONE: 310025 RS

Total NUMBER OF CALLS: 32

HITS: 28    MISSES: 4  

SUCCESS PERCENTAGE: 87.5%

HITS:

1. CALL OF THE MONTH: COAL INDIA

http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/07/coal-india-heading-towards-250.html

COAL INDIA SOLD AT 285 IN FUT BOOKED PROFIT NOW 256 LOT SIZE 1000 TOLD TO BUY PE AT 3.75 PS NOW 16.50 WENT UP 5 TIMES IN JUST 2  DAYS
PROFIT 29000 RS IN FUT & 12750 IN OPTIONS TOTAL 41750

2. CALL OF THE MONTH 2: AUROBINDHO PHARMA BTST CALL

http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/08/call-of-month-aurobindho-pharma-profit.html

GIVEN SELL BELOW 150 IN FUT AT BOOKED PROFIT AT 140 LOT SIZE 2000

 PROFIT 2000*10=20000 RS
140 PE BOUGHT AT 4.30 BOOKED PROFIT AT 10.50

PROFIT 2000*6.20=12400 RS

TOTAL IN BTST 20000+12400=32400 RS JUST IN A DAY TIME

3. CALL OF THE MONTH 3 ACC

http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/08/call-of-day-acc.html

SELL ACC AT 1100 TARGET 950- 930 FALLLEN INTRAY DAY TO 1003 AND BOOKED NEXT DAY MORNING AT 985 LOT SIZE 250 PROFIT 31250 RS

4. CALL OF THE MONTH 4 PAIR TRADE- SBIN AND INFOSYS

TOLD TO BUY INFOSYS LOT SIZE 125 @ 3105 AND SELL SBIN LOT SIZE 125   AT 1600 ON AUG 13 TH

BOTH STOCKS WENT ROCKING SBIN FELL TO 1455 AND INFOSYS FLY TO 3130

BOOKED PROFIT 120 RS IN EACH SOLD INFY AT 3125 AND COVERED SBIN AT 1480 EVEN THOUGH STOCK WENT TO 1450

PROFIT 120+120=240 RS PROFIT 125*240=30000 RS

FUTURES & OPTIONS

 

1.     Kotak bank : H&S breakdown - Heading for 640-630  TARGET ACHIVED  TOLD TO SEEL BELOW 680 LOT SIZE 500 PROFIT 500*50=25000 RS

  http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/07/kotak-bank-h-breakdown-heading-for-640.html

    

2.     AUROBINDHO PHARMA COVERED THE SHORT AT 161 WITH 13000 RS PROFIT
yst closing minute call to sell auro @ 167.5 sl 170 tgt 158 lot size 2000 already went to 161 (2000* 6.50=13000 rs profit excellent way to start a fresh month)

3.     ICICI BANK NOW PURE 100 RS ALMOST GONE TOLD TO SELL BELOW 980 NOW REACHED 890 ALREADY LOT SIZE 250  PROFIT 250 *90=22500
MY UPDATE ON JUNE 21:
ICICI Bank stock: Breakdown?

http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/07/icici-bank-stock-breakdown_26.html

4.    NTPC TOLD TO SEEL BELOW 136  BOOKD PROFIT  AT 128 LOT SIZE 2000 PROFIT 14000 RS

NTPC 130  TOLD TO BUY AT 2.45 PS SOLD AT 4.50 INTRAY DAY WITH 4100 RS PROFIT  AND AGAIN BUGHT BACK AT 2.50 AND SOLD AFTER 2 DAYS AT 6 WITH PROFIT 7000  TOTAL PROFIT IN NTPC  14000=+7000+4100=25100 RS

http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/07/ntpc-on-its-way-to-105-110.html

5.     RCOM SOLD AT 124  COVERED AT 118  BOOKED PROFIT  124-8=6 RS LOT SIZE 4000 PROFIT 4000*8=24000 RS JUST 1 DAY http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/08/call-of-month-coal-india-boked-profit.html

6.      HDFC SOLD AT 795 COVERD AT 742  LOT SIZE 250  PROFIT 250* 53=13250

7.      HDFC 760 CA TOLD TO BUY AT 15.50 LOT SIZE 250 HIT 26 PROFIT=2625

8.      BUY CIPLA  430 CA 7.30 PS  LOT SIZE 1000  BOOKED PROFIT 10.30 PS  PROFIT 3000 RS (INTRAY DAY)

9.     SELL M&M fut @ 897-900 SL 910 tgt 860-840 LOT SIZE 250 BOOKED PROFIT AT 875   897-875=22 RS PROFIT 250*22=5500 RS (INTRAY DAY)

10.    SELL BANK NIFTY 9700 TGT 9400 LOT 25 PROFIT=7500(INTRA DAY)

11.   SBIN 1500 PE BOUGHT AT 15 RS EXITED AT 49 RS PROFIT 4250

12.  BHEL REC TO GO LONG ON 115 CA @ 2.60 SL TARGET 5-7 -10 LOT SIZE 2000 BOOKED    PROFIT AT 7  PROFIT 8800 RS HIT ALL TARGETS EVEN THOUGH BOOKED  AT 7 

13.  Buy JINDAL STEEL fut @ 237.5 SL 234 tgt 260+ , don't miss buying it at any cos

HIT 245 IN JUST 10 MIN  BOOKED 7500 RS PRFOIT AS IT MOVED SO FAST

14.  BUY SAIL 47.50 CA AT 1.10 PS LOT SIZE 4000 HIT 1.80 INTRADAY PROFIT 2800

15.  SELL TATA STEEL AT 285 BOOKED PROFIT AT 267 LOT 1000 PROFIT 18000 RS

http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/08/is-it-time-to-go-short-on-tata-steel.html

16.  BUY ICICI BANK 800 CA AT 5 RS LOT SIZE 250  SOLD AT 5 ITSELF NO LOSS NO PROFIT

 MISSES:

1.      BANK NIFTY 1400 CA TOLD TO BUY AT 175 THOUGH IT WENT TO 280 DIDN’T BOOK PROFIT  LOT SIZE 25  LOSS EXITED AT 50 RS LOSS 3125

2.      SBIN 1700 CA TOLD TO BUY AT 35 LOT SIZE 125  WENT TO HIT  43 BUT DINT BOOK PROFIT AND EXITED AT 32 LOSS: 123 *3=375 RS

3.      AXIS BANK  100 CA TOLD TO BUY AT 20 SL HIT AT 10  EVEN THOUGHT IT WENT TO 27  LOSS 2500 RS 

4.      HINDALCO 102.50 CA TOLD TO BUY AT 1.70 WITH .75 SL  LOT SIZE 4000 TARTGET 5

REALLY UNLUCKY HT SL LOSS 2200 BUT IT HIT TARGET AFTER HITTING SL

                                    CASH CALL

 

1.      POSITIONAL BUY BERGER PAINT BETWEEN 185- 175 SL BELOW 160 TGT 210 – 230  TARGET 1 ACHIVED INTRAY DAY WENT ON TO 230 AFTER  2 WEEKS 

2.      BUY BATA ABOVE 94O TARGET  980 STOP LOSS 910 BIG MOMENTUM PUSH WILL COME ABOVE 980  REAHCED 973 INTRAYDAY ITSELF

3.      OFSS TOLD TO BUY ABOVE 2860 ON JULY 26 TH TODAY HIT 3000- TARGET ACHIEVED

4.      ICICI BANK  BUY GIVEN AT 890  HIT  927 THE VERY NEXT DAY

5.       BIOCON RECOMMENDED  TO BUY ABOVE  305 HIT 360 TARGET ACHIEVED

6.       BUY L&T FIN AT 52  HIT 60  9LONG TERM CALL FOR TARGET 90

7.       YES BANK TOLD TO BUY AT 230 HIT 260 THE VERY NEXT DAY

8.       BHARAT FORGE TOLD TO BUY AT 219 ON AUG 15  TARGET 270 HIT 267 

( I HAVE NOT CALCULATED THE PROFITS MADE IN CASH CALLS AS I HAVE  NOT IDICATED QUATITY )

IS KOTAK MAHADRA BANK HEADING TO TO 550- 520

 EXACTLY ONE MONTH BACK ON JULY 26 I POSTED IN MY BLOG TO SELL KOTAK BANK BELOW 680 FOR TARGETS 630  THE TARGET WAS ACHIVED AND  THE STOCK IS NOT STOPPED FALLING

THIS MY MY  UPDATE ON JULY 26 TH
http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/search/label/KOTAK%20MAHINDRA%20BANK

NOW I WISH TO AGAIN HAVE A RE LOOK AT THE STOCK


The stock has been in a super uptrend on long term charts.
600 has been a strong support for last 1 year. Earlier the same was a resistance.
Longer term trend line also comes at 600.
The strategy in such case should be to watch for either strong reversal above recent weekly highs like 650-660 for a reversal or initiate fresh shorts on momentum below 600.
 Sustaining below 600 will open up downsides to 520-550 which has been last 2-3 year lows.

The major reason to look for Kotak is the fact that Bank Nifty has broken major trend lines on long term so many other banking stocks could do the same.

IS IT TIME TO GO SHORT ON TATA STEEL

TATA STEEL – Nearing Resistance.

SELL @ 285 LOT SIZE 1000 SL 295 TGT 260 SELL IN SEPTEMBER SERIES

 

Tata Steel Technical View:

-> Previously the stock had made 3 bottoms around 290-296 zone ( shown by arrows).
-> Post the breakdown the stock did make an attempt to get back above the zone which failed.
-> The stock has seen a huge 40% move with very good volumes.
-> Right now at 285 levels it is getting close to a very important resistance. But there is no change of trend yet.
-> Given the big rally and near resistance can expect a pullback to 260. A short trade can be initiated with stops at 295.

 

WHAT TO DO IN ITC AFTER BREAKING DOWN 200 DMA?

ITC HAS BROKEN 200 DMA ONLY ONCE SINCE MARCH 2009



WHAT HAPPENED ON BREAK DOWN IN 2011



WHAT TO DO NOW