IS KOTAK MAHADRA BANK HEADING TO TO 550- 520

 EXACTLY ONE MONTH BACK ON JULY 26 I POSTED IN MY BLOG TO SELL KOTAK BANK BELOW 680 FOR TARGETS 630  THE TARGET WAS ACHIVED AND  THE STOCK IS NOT STOPPED FALLING

THIS MY MY  UPDATE ON JULY 26 TH
http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/search/label/KOTAK%20MAHINDRA%20BANK

NOW I WISH TO AGAIN HAVE A RE LOOK AT THE STOCK


The stock has been in a super uptrend on long term charts.
600 has been a strong support for last 1 year. Earlier the same was a resistance.
Longer term trend line also comes at 600.
The strategy in such case should be to watch for either strong reversal above recent weekly highs like 650-660 for a reversal or initiate fresh shorts on momentum below 600.
 Sustaining below 600 will open up downsides to 520-550 which has been last 2-3 year lows.

The major reason to look for Kotak is the fact that Bank Nifty has broken major trend lines on long term so many other banking stocks could do the same.

IS IT TIME TO GO SHORT ON TATA STEEL

TATA STEEL – Nearing Resistance.

SELL @ 285 LOT SIZE 1000 SL 295 TGT 260 SELL IN SEPTEMBER SERIES

 

Tata Steel Technical View:

-> Previously the stock had made 3 bottoms around 290-296 zone ( shown by arrows).
-> Post the breakdown the stock did make an attempt to get back above the zone which failed.
-> The stock has seen a huge 40% move with very good volumes.
-> Right now at 285 levels it is getting close to a very important resistance. But there is no change of trend yet.
-> Given the big rally and near resistance can expect a pullback to 260. A short trade can be initiated with stops at 295.

 

WHAT TO DO IN ITC AFTER BREAKING DOWN 200 DMA?

ITC HAS BROKEN 200 DMA ONLY ONCE SINCE MARCH 2009



WHAT HAPPENED ON BREAK DOWN IN 2011



WHAT TO DO NOW

JP ASSOCIATES GETTING READY FOR 30-40% UP MOVE

CAN JP ASSOCIATES DO A  30% PLUS MOVE IN NEXT FEW WEEKS TIME?

Have been Updating paid Clients abt the jp group stocks (news + technicals) whole of  last week ...

Thought of sharing with you guys as well

you must be reading about some of the good news about the Jp group reducing debt etc

Lets look into some headlines that caught my eyes this past week :

Looking to raise around 10,000 cr via asset sales

JP-UltraTech deal likely to be announced this month

JP Power in talks with CESC to sell Bina proj for over 1500 cr

JP Assoc to sell Guj cement unit to UltraTech for approx 4000 cr

JP Power in talks with Gulf-based funds to sell 2 hydro units

JP Power plans to raise close to 4k cr via sale of hydro projects

So in short  

Jaypee Group plans asset sales to reduce debt by 15,000 crore ($2.5 billion)

Now Lets look from the technical point of view for the stock Jp Associates , i'm reposting the charts i mailed to paid clients in last 8-10 days

This one was sent on 15 aug 

 

There was a good breakout chance on last Friday, but somehow due to crash in whole market , it failed . .

Then Yesterday I again mailed the updated chart to paid clients 

 

Now Lets see how Jp Associates Traded Today 

 

As you can see in abv chart , stock moved nearly 5% in last 30 min on huge vols & there was a clear build up on the long side by the traders ... Clearly tells you that's you Should definitely consider going long in this script next week to make some money on this Technical up-move  . . .

Have updated quite a few calls this week on my Facebook page & twitter , hope you liked my work & calls .. I follow strict risk reward on my calls ...If you want to take paid subscription mail me at TRENDZOFMARKET@GMAIL.COM

UGLY START FOR US MARKET

Is S&P 500 Sell on Rally or Buy on Pullback?

How does S&P 500 look on a daily Chart?
Is S&P 500 Buy on Pullback or Sell on Rally? 




S&P 500 was trading at all time high of 1710 in early August. A market that trades at all time high is always an attractive Buy on pullback. Going by this definition – the market is a BUY
But if you purely look at the daily chart – and the way S&P 500 has broken down below 1682-1685 with a large candle – it’s very difficult to build a bullish picture at least based on this set up. Technically – S&P 500 will have to close above 1685 to negate the bearish energy of the market.
Right now, shorts will get jittery on pullback considering overall macro picture of the market. We don’t know how far market can pullback on the upside. The first resistance seems to be 1658-1660 which seems to have held well for now 4 days. A breakout above 1658-1660 will result in some short term short covering push but will that mean return of Bulls — too early to say.

NIFTY AND VIX SET UP

Nifty and India Vix(VOLATILITY INDEX)

Before i start the view lets make it clear was bullish at 5700 a month back and we did see a move from 5600 to 6100 almost but not enough to our minimum target price of 6200.
Since than the big falls in broader market and a crack below 5700-5600 we have become extremely cautious as the trend has broken down and one should be ready for the worst.
Technically the long term trendline since 2008-2009 and recent bottoms have been broken confirming a trend change to the downside. Only difference is broader markets are close to 2011/2012 lows so panic might be a bit slower in quality stocks. Also the weightage is very polarized in Nifty and one needs to now get stock specific.

Now lets go with the India Vix and Nifty co-relation which we generally use in panics or whenever India Vix starts touching 26+ levels.

The current scenario seems very similar to 2011 where we saw a trend line breakdown with S&P downgrading US and next 3-4 months were panicky and volatile.
India Vix is now back to 30. This is generally an indication of panic and fear. There has not been any global correction and if that adds to the market we could be seeing much higher levels.
The last few times what we notice is India Vix either tops at 28-30 or sees a much bigger panic and goes to 35-38 levels and stays there like in 2011.
Given we have a major trend line breakdown like 2011 and the first hit in India Vix it seems we may get into a similar 3-5 months period of bottoming out.
Given the downtrend there is no point taking a number for Nifty as support as there is no guarantee which one will hold.
A good trade can come in when India Vix sees a panic to 33-36 levels with global markets and Nifty makes a sharp dip. Till then it remains a time to stay out and keep wait for low risk-setups either on long/short on particular stocks.
Although trend is down but there will be 8-10% bounces in Nifty after sharp drops which will give trading opportunities on both sides.
 The biggest silver lining is after touching 28-30 India Vix either Nifty makes a quick fix bottom like it kept doing in 2010 or make a 3-5 months bottoming out phase like 2011 which gives a 30-40% bounce ( 2012 ) . We are ruling out a 2008 like scenario because it had a euphoric precedence unlike today.


Conclusion :

Although the trend is clearly down but the silver lining is the fact that India Vix has touched 28-30 levels and fear has already crept in to markets and Nifty generally tends to make durable bottoms very quickly or in 3-5 months . Also this 3-5 months give excellent bottom up buying opportunities for patient traders.

We are keeping the strategy simple. When in doubt stay out. Wait for the right time and right setup. Keep looking for good companies.