WILL TATAGLOBAL MELT TO 125 AFTER RESULTS?

SELL TATA GLOBAL fut @ 143.50 SL 145.2 

TGT 133-135 Today possible (Lot size 2000)

Technically Stock has given Breakdown

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After Brutal Friday Correction : Where is the Support Level for S&P 500

Last time the S&P 500 opened at the high and closed at the low of the day was over two years ago (11/23/11)

S&P DAILY CHART

 

THE BIG QUESTION 

 WHAT IF THERE IS A DEEPER CORRECTION?

S&P 500 WEEKLY CHART

 DEEPER CORRECTION

STILL IN BREAK OUT BULL MARKET

THE BIG QUESTION?

SUMMARY

ON MONDAY S&P  HIT 1775 AND YESTERDAY MANGED TO GIVE A BOUNCE  BACK TO 1792

 

TAKE ONE LEVELS AT AT TIME NOW WE CAN ASSUME S&P WILL TAKE SUPPORT AT 1760-1775 IF ITS BREAK THEN 50 WEEK MOVING AVG AT 1680 WILL ACT AS A VERY STRONG SUPPORT IF THAT TOO IS GONE THEN A DRAMATIC 16% FALL IS ON CARDS WE DON'T KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN SO LETS FOCUS ON  S&P LEVELS AS ITS A LEADING GLOBAL INDICATOR

 

STRATEGY TO BE SUCCESSFUL IN A BREAK OUT STOCK

Here’s a small write up on the subject.

In Trading/Investing:  There are always times when following questions confront us:
1. Should we hold on to existing PROFITABLE investment/trading position considering risky market environment?
2. Should we use this risky period to buy a stock that we always wanted to buy?
3. Should we exit on recently entered trades which is already in deep loss?
All these are good questions but very difficult to answer. There is no right answer. There are only choices and consequences.
There is time to BUY AND RIDE and there is time to SIT TIGHT. Corrections are healthy in markets and should not scare one but sometimes market corrections are so brutal that it does create doubt on what may happen next. It is during these times we end up taking trades which we regret later. Last few days of selling has been pretty brutal and it has created enormous doubt on the health of the market. No one knows – Is this the start of correction or we are done with it?
The problem: How to make decisions in this environment.
Let me give you one illustration. Trading is like driving a  car. The car being the stock and the road being the market condition.

This was the road condition for last 3 months

It was clear and sunny market conditions. All you had to do was pick a right stock and ride it as long as you want. The risks were far and few and skillful stock selections were giving impressive returns. Since driving condition was good, more and more high performance cars were getting launched and it was creating excitement among investors and market was rewarding them with great performance.
Also, it was not as if weather conditions were not changing. Dark clouds used to gather but they used to clear out in no time. BUT Now, that’s not the case.
The corrections of last one week has changed the weather and road conditions pretty dramatically. 

Current Condition: This is what you see on your windshield when you drive

 

You know there is a road ahead. You can be confident of conditions ahead but the fact is – you cannot see ahead clearly and the risks have increased manyfold if you stay on road. Your car (stock) can be excellent but road and weather conditions can impact your car adversely. Generally, what is the most sensible thing to do in such an environment: Drive slowly (Reduce profitable positions) and if possible: Get off the road (Liquidate loss making positions completely). And if you are at home/office: wait for the weather to clear up before venturing out on the road. It means sit tight and not take fresh positions. Also, Bad market conditions mean uncharitable market behavior. Just look at the way how stocks are cracking – correcting 10%-15% just like that on small bad news. Just visualize car skidding on the road. Generally, it is this kind of environment that damages a person psychologically more than financially. It reduces your confidence to trade. 
I am not saying that you should completely exit the market. If you have a position where your conviction is very high and you are in profit – you can decide to ride and brave the weather out. It’s all judgment call one has to take. I am also not saying that one should not take trades with proper setups but one should be very careful of the risks involved in current market condition. The objective of writing this article was to give a psychological twist to managing trading and investment positions.

The best thing to do right now: OBSERVE VARIOUS BREAK OUT STOCKS  and see how they are behaving. Which one of them showing strength and which one showing weakness. It will help you focus on right stocks when weather improves.

"We don't only tell you what stocks did, we tell you why, and we tell you where stocks are headed next. How? By tracking the psychology of the markets, tracking patterns and indicators that reveal where stock prices are trending, giving us high probability trade opportunities."
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INVESTMENT BUY:BERGER PAINT

BUY BERGER PAINT 

TIME JAN 10 12.23 

BUY 500 BERGER PAINT  CMP 212  SL 205 ON CLOSING BASIC TGT 230-250

berger paint hit  225.50:) PROFIT 6750 RS 

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SELAN: A STOCK READY TO EXPLODE

SELAN AS EXPECTED EXPLODED  TOLD TO BUY AT 320-330  ON JAN 18 TH  IN JUST 2 WEEKS STOCK EXPLODED AND HIT 464 WHOPPING 42% MOVE 

HERE WAS MY UPDATE ON JAN 18 TH 

Selan Exploration stock after a long time seems ready to explode

Here’s the Selan Exploration Weekly Chart

 As you can see in the chart above – Selan Exploration stock struggled to cross the trendline for years now. But this week – finally stock has broken out above the trendline and seems ready to run. The good thing: the breakout seems backed by volumes.
 The stock appears BUY with a closing stop loss below 314.9.

FEW FUNDAMENTAL REASON 

Note:Trying to pen in most simple words.Please read it meticulously and understand why you need to buy the stock.

Story:Selan Exploration is into exploration & production of oil & gas.It currently operates 5 small fields in Cambay onshore-Lohar, Bakrol, Indrora, Ognaj and Karjisan.These oil fields were awarded to the company in 1995-2000 under a Production Sharing Contract (PSC) with 100% participating interest by the Government of India.Selan was subsequently awarded two more fields in Gujarat namely Ognaj Oilfield and Karjisan Gas field.In-place resource stands at 73 mmbbl(million barrels)& 7 mmbbl in Bakrol & Lohar respectively.Production level is currently at ~660 bpd(barrels per day).The company sells its crude output to Indian oil at a discount of 5% to Brent.Five points to qualify Selan exploration as a great medium to long term buy.

1)As of now, the company is producing oil from only 2 fields,Bakrol & Lohar.Management has also indicated that Indrora Oilfield contain far larger quantities of recoverable oil than Bakrol.Let us conservatively assume 100 Million Barrels of Oil Reserves under Selan.Selan's reserve would get valued at many a thousand crores.Selan recently has completed drilling of 2 wells, commercial production is expected to happen any day now.Further drilling is also going on.Company has a marketcap of only 500crs.It delivered a revenue of 97crs and PAT of 45crs respectively for the last fiscal 2012-13.

2)Previously, the technology recovery rate of exploration activities was ranging from 10-20% from the total potential reserves in Gujarat.But with the latest technology implementation of 3D contour mapping this recovery rate has gone up to as high as 50-60% for the similar fields.Contour mapping is just like a magnetic resonance imaging(MRI) scan of a human body.Stunning management quality and they are committed to make huge amount of shareholders wealth in the coming years.It buybacks(7 buybacks in the last 10 years),it allots warrants,it generates huge amount of cash,it has got a wonderful under leveraged balance sheet.Selan is one sure shot winner for the longer run.

3)Numbers has been flattish so far over the last few years as it was consolidating its resources and investing a lot in its proven fields.Over the next few quarters the company would actually be in a position to ramp up production massively and deliver an EPS of 60(2014-15).Value it as per the sector and the valuation would be in 4 digits.Even if at the present juncture we see the valuation of selan;EV/reserves of less than 1,marketcap to sales of around 5 with high double digit return ratios,its the cheapest oil exploration company in the bourses.

4)Selan's production cost is $11 per barrel, which is reasonably low.Company pays $5 per barrel as Royalty to the government.The stock has delivered an annualized return of over 41% from 2003 to till date,much superior to the broader market(Selan was at 10rs 10 years ago).Hell,its even higher than what "Warren Buffet Sahab"s berkshire hathaway delivered in the same period.In my view creating and delivering shareholder value has been well handled by Selan. Selan is now all set to start the process of returning value to shareholders while they continue the value creation process.

5)Crude oil demand is projected to increase to about 1600-1800 mn barrels per year. Rising global crude oil prices have triggered increased domestic exploration and production activity.All this factors makes Selan a big beneficiary and helps one to have a lot of conviction on the stock.Selan posses robust fundamentals,amazing pedigree quality,mind boggling prospects,low business risk.Over the next few quarters it can have a production level of about four to five lakh barrels per year, which can lead to a cash flow of over Rs 150 crore.Have put a 8 times forward earnings to arrive at the target price.Selan is a stock which can be kept for lifetime.Make it a part of your core portfolio folks.
 

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JUST DAIL :GRAND SUCESS

TO HAVE SUCESS JUST JOIN TRENDZOFMARKET.. BE A PREMIUM PAID CLIENT AND ENJOY THIS TYPE OF CALLS
We covered JUST DIAL on DEC 11 to our paid clients when it was trading at 1145 and updated in our blog on DEC 20 th when the stock  made a 300 rs up move and hit 1345 still said the stock look set for major major gains in times ahead  see where the stock is now just 1 more month JAN 22 THE STOCK Made a further 300 rs move  and hit 1727 ..THIS STOCK MOVE WHOPPING 58% MOVE IN JUST 1 AND HALF MONTHS ..JUST6 JOIN US IF YOU WANT TO ENJOY A GREAT 2014  . YOUR KEY TO SUCCESS IS TRENDZOFMARKET

JUST DIAL in last one and a half month. I covered the stock here on Dec 11 2013.
here is the link: http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/12/just-dail-another-gem-of-multibagger.html
 

Here’s how the stock has moved -

(SORRY  SMALL ERROR IN IMAGE NOT JULY 11 ITS DEC 11)
As you can see in the chart above: Momentum stocks are great buys on pullback at moving average. The stock worked exactly as the text book and has delivered strong gains in just over a month and half. When stocks deliver windfall gains in very short period of time: one should take it AND wait for pullback.

We  will cover all breakout and momentum stocks for subscribed members only 

.We invite you to become Premium member of the website and get access to  many more Breakout Opportunities that may come this year. WE just charge 2500 rs/pm .To join us plz mail us to trendzofmarket@We invite you to become Premium member of the website and get access to  many more Breakout Opportunities that may come this year. WE just charge 2500 rs/pm .To join us plz mail us to trendzofmarket@gmail.com

SBI: LOVE LOST

At a time when Nifty is about to breakout above 6400: there is no excitement at SBI counter. The stock is trading at the lower end of the trading range and it appears that No one wants to buy the stock even at this price.


SBI was the Leadership stock before Nov 2010/Inflation-Corruption Noise

As you can see in the weekly chart above: SBI made a high of 2500 in 2007. Then during Lehman crisis, SBI stock saw a brutal correction and it fell from 2500 to 1000. But then when Global markets made a comeback on Ben Bernanke’s green shoot remark/QE program – SBI rallied and from 1000 levels – it rallied to 3500 in a pretty vertical fashion. In the process – SBI broke past 2500 and that level became the support for the stock
Inflation Attack on the SBI stock

SBI stock bore the brunt of the stock market correction post Nov 2010.

As you can see in the weekly chart above: SBI stock not only broke down below 2500 – but also established it as well defined resistance. Also, in last few years: SBI stock seems to have found support near 1500-1600. Now what’s disturbing: at a time when Nifty is trading at higher end of the resistance – SBI is trading at lower end of the range. It just reflects how weak the stock is technically. Even in a good market – traders/investors are avoiding the stock.
Is SBI a Buy at CMP of 1500-1600?
Technically – The Answer is No. But if one is a big SBI believer, one can Buy with an assumption that stock will hold 1500 and eventually rally to 2500 in CY 2014. That itself will be a 50% move. BUT Here’s the problem: there is no guarantee that such move may happen considering how weak the stock is technically. Also if overall market starts correcting, then SBI will be the first stock to break down. Hence, one should be prepared to exit if stock breaks down and makes new low below 1450.
.We invite you to become Premium member of the website and get access to  many more Breakout Opportunities that may come this year. WE just charge 2500 rs/pm .To join us plz mail us to trendzofmarket@We invite you to become Premium member of the website and get access to  many more Breakout Opportunities that may come this year. WE just charge 2500 rs/pm .To join us plz mail us to trendzofmarket@gmail.com