MISTAKE: SELLING OUTPERFORMERS AND HOLDING UNDERPERFORMERS

This is one mistake most of us make. We retain underperformers in the portfolio and sell the stocks that outperform in name of taking profit.

LET US CHECK AN EXAMPLE
Zee Entertainment = Leadership Stock

Just Look at the Chart and how Zee Entertainment stock has moved over last 1.5 years. As a matter of fact, Zee was just at 180 when we covered the stock for our clinets in oct 2013  Later I covered the stock as Leadership stock in Sep 2103 . Today stock is at 270. That’s what outperformers and Leadership stocks do – they keep running ahead of everyone. But very few of us have the patience to hold the stock.

Gross Unperformer: Dish TV

Just Look at the Chart and how Dish TV stock has disappointed investors.We covered the stock in nov 2012 when it tried to give a raly. But stock disappointed and broke down. It not only broke down below Horizontal support line but also below 50 week ma and sustained below it. But generally what happens: we are not quick to react to breakdowns. We refuse to take loss and hold the stock purely on HOPE. Remember, stocks under perform for a reason

It’s sad that as investors, we don’t hold stocks that keep running. Instead, we keep stocks that does nothing purely on Hope and pray. The lesson: If stocks break down, just sell and don’t Hope. But if structure of stock intact, then ride it as long as you can

"We don't only tell you what stocks did, we tell you why, and we tell you where stocks are headed next. How? By tracking the psychology of the markets, tracking patterns and indicators that reveal where stock prices are trending, giving us high probability trade opportunities."
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HOT HOT HOT LOVABLE LINGIRIE

LOVABLE LINGERIE CAME UP WITH GOOD SET OF NUMBERS LAST WEEK STOCK GAVE A GOOD VOLUME BREAKOUT ON CHARTS ABV 315 WENT ON TO HIT 360 NOW STOCK IS GIVING A PULL BACK TO HIS BREAKOUT LEVELS .WE FEELS THIS IS A GOOD OPPORTUNITY Y TO GET INTO THE STOCK

STOCK IS HAVING GOOD SUPPORT AT 100 DMA OF 300 AND VERY GOOD SUPPORT AT 200 DMA 285 . BUY  STOCK BETWEEN 315-300  KEEP SL BELOW 285 ON CLOSING BASIC FOR TGT 355-400+ 

"We don't only tell you what stocks did, we tell you why, and we tell you where stocks are headed next. How? By tracking the psychology of the markets, tracking patterns and indicators that reveal where stock prices are trending, giving us high probability trade opportunities."
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BUY DISH TV

CALL GIVEN LAST WEK BUY DISH TV  FOR A BLAST
BUY ABV 48 SL 46.80 TGT 52-54 LOT SIZE 8000

HIT 50.25 PROFIT 18000 RS

"We don't only tell you what stocks did, we tell you why, and we tell you where stocks are headed next. How? By tracking the psychology of the markets, tracking patterns and indicators that reveal where stock prices are trending, giving us high probability trade opportunities."
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NTPC PICTURE PERFECT TECHNICAL SELL TRADE

NTPC stock has been at receiving end of bears for years now and there seems to be no end of hammering from bears. Yesterday, stock declined 11%. 

Here’s the NTPC Weekly Chart

As you can see in the chart above: NTPC stock has got hammering everytime it has tried to inch towards 100 week moving average and this time was no different. There is no sign of bottom. The stock is a prime example of why stocks are avoid when they have weak technical structure and trade below resistance.

We covered this stock on feb 10 .when stock rallied and was at 135. My call was clear sell and today stock is near 116. 

here was my post on feb 10 

http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2014/02/ntpc-sell-on-rally-stock.html

"We don't only tell you what stocks did, we tell you why, and we tell you where stocks are headed next. How? By tracking the psychology of the markets, tracking patterns and indicators that reveal where stock prices are trending, giving us high probability trade opportunities."
We invite you to become Premium member of the website and get access to all our recommendations. WE just charge 2500 rs/pm .To join us plz mail us to trendzofmarket@gmail.com  

BHARTI IS IT HEADING TO 250 LEVELS?

MINT MEGA MONEY IN BHARATI SHORT CALL
TOLD TO BUY 2900 PE @ 2.40 HIT 8.50 PS PROFIT 6000 RS
TOLD TO SHORT BELOW 300 HIT 282 PROFIT 17000 RS

WE CAME UP WITH A CLEAR REPORT ON  BHARTHI STATING ITS A CLEAR AVOID AS IT WAS HOLDING ON TO 300 SUPPORT..
HERE WAS OUR REPORT
http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2014/02/why-bharthi-airtel-is-clear-avoid.html

NOW BHARTI SEEMS TO HAVE BROKEN 300 WHICH WAS A GOOD SUPPORT

 STRATEGY NOW IS TO  SELL BHARTI   FOR POSITIONAL TRADE  SELL SELL THIS MONT FUT AND CARRY FORWARD TO NEXT MONTH OR SELL IN NEXT MONTH FUT SELL BELOW 300 KEEP CLOSING SL ABV 310 TGT 276-250 IN   30-45 DAYS TIME
BUY 290 PE @ 2.40 PS

ANOTHER CAPITAL GOOD STOCK WILL MOVE AFTER ABB AND SIEMENS

gave buy call 2 days back on the stock for 5% rally
THE STOCK IS LT IS GOOD FOR 5% RALLY  BUY ABV 1010  SL 995 TGT 1045-1050 LOT SIZE500

HIT 1041 TODAY MORNING  PROFIT 13000 RS

NTPC :SELL ON RALLY STOCK

Every time NTPC stock tries to rally – Bears hammer it down. This trend has been in place for 3 years now

Here’s the NTPC weekly chart:

 Every stock has a behavior of its own which it develops over time and then stays with it till a powerful force breaks that cycle. NTPC since last 3 years is getting hammered at 100 week ma and every rally has failed to move past it. As long as stock stays with this behavior – it will fail to attract bullish investors and traders. It’s a classic text Book: Sell the Rally stock as of now. Any Breakout past 100 week ma would change the trend but that does not appear happening as of now.

WHY BHARTHI AIRTEL IS A CLEAR AVOID

Every Stock Chart tells a story. Bharti Telecom also has an interesting stuff to say..

Here’s the Bharti Telecom Chart

Message # 1: The stock has a defined resistance at 370. It means that’s the best one can hope for in very Bullish market environment. The momentum crowd will trade in the stock only above 370. 
Message # 2: There is no enthusiasm among trading community in the stock and it is barely holding to a trend line with support near 300. But that support does not count for much as there is no aggressive buying that seems to be taking place.
Message # 3: Any weakness in market and Bharti would be the first stock to break down and race towards 250.

What does this all mean?
Bharti Telecom stock is trending sideways to down and is Avoid. It can find support around 300 but the support does not look trustworthy. 


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MUST READ: ANALAYSING YSTD S&P 1.24% RALLY

S&P 500 managed a steep rally of 1.24% today. Does this mean – the worst is over and S&P500 done with correction? Let us find out.


Trading Rule: When market breaks down below a well defined support, then pullback to the previous support is a shorting Opportunity

As you can see in the chart above: 100 dma was a solid support for the index for more than a year now and the breakdown below 100 dma this time appears decisive.
What happened today?: A Steep Rally

How does the chart look now?

As you can see above: the pullback has been to 100 dma. The question: Is the pullback to test 100 dma as resistance or this pullback marks the end of the downtrend? .
Trading Rule: In Strong Bull markets: there are false Breakdowns. It means market breaks down first and then quickly erases all the loss and climbs back above the support.
If S&P500 continues with rally over next few days – then this breakdown would be considered as false breakdown and market then would resume uptrend

Well, next few days – that’s the answer market needs to discover. So, it would be premature to celebrate. Keep an eye on what market does next from here on

"We don't only tell you what stocks did, we tell you why, and we tell you where stocks are headed next. How? By tracking the psychology of the markets, tracking patterns and indicators that reveal where stock prices are trending, giving us high probability trade opportunities."
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DONT GET TOO EXCITED BY ONE DAY RALLY IN JET AIRWAYS

Jet Airways rallied 9% today to close at 232. Does that mean stock is ready to rally? Well – just look at the chart and you will understand why the rally means nothing

Jet Airways is a sinking stock

As you can see in the chart above: Jet Airways stock has declined from 650 in May 2013 to now at 232 by Feb 2014. It’s too dramatic a decline and chart has been so badly damaged in this fall that any rally will invite sellers sooner than later. Technical turnarounds do not happen by one day bounce. Sharp rally can sometimes break the downside momentum but that is no guarantee of up move.

Why stock was up 10% today?

Competition Commission of India’s (CCI) approval for purchase of 50.1 percent stake in Jet Privilege Private Ltd (JPPL), a customer loyalty programme unit of Jet Airways. But this news has been there for months. The news may offer some floor for time being but it does not change the operating environment of the company. Also, remember – few days back Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has warned Indian airlines on safety issues and has put a ban on new flights to US. Things are tough and today’s rally can only be perceived as a relief and not a game changing event neither fundamentally nor technically.

"We don't only tell you what stocks did, we tell you why, and we tell you where stocks are headed next. How? By tracking the psychology of the markets, tracking patterns and indicators that reveal where stock prices are trending, giving us high probability trade opportunities."
We invite you to become Premium member of the website and get access to all our recommendations. WE just charge 2500 rs/pm .To join us plz mail us to trendzofmarket@gmail.com  

DON'T SWIM AGAINST THE TIDE AN EXAMPLE BANK OF BARODA

You run the risk of drowning. The same happens with the stock that tries to rally against the trend. It eventually sinks to New Lows.

Have a Look at one such stock: Bank of Baroda
Here’s the weekly chart

As you can see in the chart above: Bank of Baroda began its downtrend in 2011 and since then every attempt of the stock to rally against the trend has resulted in fresh declines. The stock is a prime example of why one should never try to hunt for a bottom in a stock that is in downtrend. Reason: It’s not worth it. 

Trend persists longer than one can imagine

TATA POWER UNDER SEVERE DISTRESS AND AGONY .WHY?

Power sector has suffered a lot in last five years with all sorts of problems from project clearances to coal availability to indecision on tariffs to poor health of SEBs.

Tata Power Company is India’s largest private sector, integrated utility company. The company has an installed power generating capacity of about 6000 MW. The company through its subsidiaries and joint ventures has a presence in power transmission, distribution and trading. The company’s health is the best way to gauge the health of the Power sector.

Well, Pictures speak for themselves. Here’s the Tata Power stock Weekly Chart

Well as you can see in the chart above – the stock has witnessed waterfall like decline. From Highs of 145 in CY2010, the stock has come down to 72 and still there are no signs of revival and turnaround.
Well, How can a sector or a leading stock in a sector make a bottom when political noises are for free power and no tariff revision. Add messy coal policy and we have a total recipe for disaster as far as Power sector is concerned. Tata Power stock will continue suffer as long as these voices remain loud.


"We don't only tell you what stocks did, we tell you why, and we tell you where stocks are headed next. How? By tracking the psychology of the markets, tracking patterns and indicators that reveal where stock prices are trending, giving us high probability trade opportunities."
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THE MOST DRAMATIC BREAKOUT OF LAST 6 MONTHS

Here’s one breakout that seems to have shocked everyone with its vertical up move

The Stock is Aurobindo Pharma
TRENDZOFMARKET COVERED THE STOCK  AT 195 AND 205 TO BUY THIS STOCK FOR MEGA GIANS
HERE IS MY BUY CALLS FEW MONTHS BACK
http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/10/aurobindo-pharma-stock-can-test-280-300.html 

SEE WHERE THE STOCK IS NOW HIT 502 TODAY MORNING STUNNING 240% MOVE IN JUST 3 MONTHS TIME YOU CAN GET SUCH CALLS ONLY FROM TRENDZOFMARKET

Here’s the Weekly chart of Aurobindo Pharma

As you can see in the chart above: there was a well defined resistance of 201-205 before October 2013. The stock then broke out above 201-205 and resulted in vertical upmove. From levels of 205 – the stock zoomed to 490 i.e. 1.5x in less than 4 months. That’s what breakouts do if you catch them at right spot and stay with them little longer.
Remember, all break outs do not take vertical path. There are many that consolidate for weeks and months before taking off.

"We don't only tell you what stocks did, we tell you why, and we tell you where stocks are headed next. How? By tracking the psychology of the markets, tracking patterns and indicators that reveal where stock prices are trending, giving us high probability trade opportunities."
We invite you to become Premium member of the website and get access to all our recommendations. WE just charge 2500 rs/pm .To join us plz mail us to trendzofmarket@gmail.com 

S&P: BUY ON DIP CROWD DISSPEARING

This is what happens when a long standing support cracks

Panic Sell off
Trading Rule: When one level cracks – then market races to the next level of support. That support stands at 200 dma.

S&P500 had a dream run for last many many months and it never cracked even below 100 dma during that period. But with market now cracking below 100 dma: expect total bearish pressure on markets. Today we saw dramatic selling in US market. Buy the dip crowd will now give way to sell on rallies crowd. We are going to witness a different market over next few weeks and hence be careful.
Remember, when markets break down: No support is good enough to stand the bearish force. We have been cautioning on a market for a while and now its time to just stand aside and let the bearish force play itself out.

S&P FIGHTING WITH TOOTH AND NAIL AT CURRENT LEVEL

S&P500 despite all the bearishness is holding up well. Here’s why

Here’s the Daily Chart of S&P500

 
As you can see in the chart above: S&P500 seems to have strong Horizontal support at 1770. First, in October – it took a while for index to break past 1770 and when it did that in Nov – it never looked back. Post breakout: index consolidated a lot above 1770 and then in December, S&P500 managed a stunning recovery from 1767 all the way to 1850. Now, it has pulled back pretty violently but again seems to be holding its head above 1770 despite all the bearishness.
That’s not all: the current Horizontal support level also converges with 100 dma: the solid support level of 2013

 As you can see in the chart above: S&P500 during 2013 managed to hold its head above 100 dma every time index pulled back. It seems to be doing the same now – trying its best to hold 100 dma. Will it succeed? We will wait and see. Rest assured breakdown below 100 dma will lead to panic and S&P500 can slide all the way to 200 dma i.e. 1706. So, that’s why the current level seems a very interesting place to watch the market.

OUR PREVIOUS REPORT ON S&P: 

http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2014/01/after-brutal-friday-correction-where-is.html

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