Dow Jones – End of QE 2 , Debt Limit. 2013 – Govt shutdown and Debt Limit

Its been quite some time since i have looked into Dow Jones and before writing this post did look into some blogs and mails to get a sentiment av

Now what is interesting is the above chart looks pretty similar to 2011.

In 2011

- > End of QE 2
-> Uncerainty around Debt Limit Negotiations
-> S&P downgrade.

Now in 2013

-> Fed Tapering
-> Govt Shutdown
-> Debt Limit

Now the technical similarity

-> A good strong upmove from lows after consolidation
- > Took 3-6 months to form the Head and Shoulders formation.
-> Almost a similar size of head and shoulders. ( little lesser target in 2013)

Although this is a presumption that a similar pattern will unfold but a break below 14750-14850 will confirm the possibility of a downside.

This for now is an interesting similarity but will keep watch on a similar breakdown if happens will need to act accordingly as a such correction in US markets will keep other markets also under pressure or maybe lead to a global correction.

This is another chart from Chris Kimble. Link to the post and the chart below.


Bottomline : Although there is no confirmation of a breakdown but one needs to be alert for acting on shorts as and when the price ticks below important support levels. Better to be cautious than brave at this time.

This Stock Should be Completely Avoided at Any Cost

ERA INFRA

 
 

Triangle Breakout :United Phosphorous can target 160-165

> This is a 2 day older chart and yesterdys  move to 150 has confirmed the breakout.
-> Expect a move to 160-165 in short term. Stoploss now to be taken to 139.buy on dips

Aurobindo Pharma : Stock Can test 280-300 By Year End

Stock had a Breakout abv 195 & 

Breakout confirmation came abv 205

BUY ABOVE 205  LOT SIZE 2000  TGT 240-260 (2-3 WEEKS TIME)

 

Big Cup & Handle on Weekly Charts

 

Learning From History 

Last Time Stock has a similar breakout in 2012

 & Auro rallied 50% in no time

 

Last Week Reco here in Advance

http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/09/aurobindo-pharma-getting-ready-for-cup.html

Stock has been On Radar of Major Brokerages 

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/recommendations/buy-aurobindo-pharma-targetrs-260-way2wealth_961541.html?utm_source=IW_DATA_stockpage

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/stocks-views/remain-investedaurobindo-pharma-says-tulsian_961344.html?utm_source=IW_DATA_stockpage

Verdict : Have Gone Positional Long in Stock and have been Recommending to clients since a week now & Also in Last Results Stock Saw  A good Turnaround in QoQ no's ...So Expecting a good Build up Ahead of This Quarter Results ...Who Knows , if Company Surprises the Street Again This Quarter , Stock can See a Re-Rating towards 280-300 in No time ....Techincals Showing Something Big is Coming , Hope Fundamentals don't Disappoint !!

 

 

 

Result Bet : Buy Exide abv 140

                                     EXIDE 

HITS & MISSES = SEPTEMBER

 
HITS AND MISSES SEPTEMBER

TOTAL PROFIT THIS MONTH IN f&O ALONE:2,25325 RS

Total NUMBER OF CALLS: 27

HITS: 24    MISSES: 4  

SUCCESS PERCENTAGE: 85.5%

HITS:

1. CALL OF THE MONTH:

ONGC TOLD TO BUY AT 245 SL 235 TGT 275 LOT SIZE 1000 PROFIT 30000 RS ACHIVED IN 3 DAYS

http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/09/ongc-tata-global-2-stocks-at-good.html

2. CALL OF THE MONTH 2:

BUY HINDACLO AT 111 SL 106 TGT 120- 125 LOT SIZE 4000 TARGET 1 ACHIVED AT 120 PROFIT 36000 RS

http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/09/hindalco-18000-rs-intray-day-profit.html

3. CALL OF THE MONTH 3

SELL BHEL 144-147 SL 150 TGT 125-120 LOT SIZE 2000 HIT 125 TARGET ACHIVED PROFIT 38000 RS  

4. CALL OF THE MONTH 4:

TATAMOTORS BOOKED PROFIT AT 164 TOLD TO BUY AT 153 ON SEP 3 AND SOLD ON SEP 10 LOT SIZE 2000

PROFIT 22000 RS

RECOMMENDED ON SEP 3:
TATAMOTOR DVR ABV 153 CAN TEST 161 LOT SIZE 2000
OR BUY IN CASH FOR POSITIONAL TRADE FOR 170-190
http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/08/tata-mot-dvr-can-test-175-190-in-short.html

http://trendzofmarket.blogspot.in/2013/09/whats-next-for-bhel-after-40-rally.html

 FUTURES & OPTIONS

     

  

1.       SELL RANBAXY FUT AT 419.50 SL 428(CLOSING BASIS) LOT SIZE 500 TARGET 380 BOOKED PROFT AT 499.50  PROFIT 500 *20=10000 RS

2.      BUY JUBILANT FOOD AT 1087  TGT 1175 SL 1060  BOOKED PROFIT AT 1068  PROFIT 20250

3.      BTST BHARAT FORGE FUT AT 241 SL 235 TGT 260 LOT SIZE 1000 BOOKED PROFIT AT 253.. PROFIT 1000*12 =12000 RS

4.      SELL HDFC  620 SL 635 TGT 570-550 (LOT SIZE 500) HIT 592  INTRA DAY PROFIT 14000 RS

5.      BUY COAL INDIA ABV 280 LOT SIZE 1000  BOOKED PROFIT AT 287.50  IN LESS THAN AMIN  PROFIT 7500

6.      BUY OFSS BTST @ 3030 TGT 3250-3400  HIT 3145 NEXT DAY  PROFIT 14375 RS

7.      BUY HAVELLS BTST AT 640  TGT 670  HIT 666 LOT 500 PROFIT 12500 RS

8.      BUY Allahabad bank 80 ca @ 3.80 SL 3.3 Tgt 5.50-8 ... LOT SIZE 4000 TARGET ACHIVED 5.50   6800 RS INTRA DAY

9.      BUY HCL TECH 1060 PE AT 8 HIT 15  PROFIT 3500 RS

10.  RAYMONDS SELL AT 216  TGT 200 LOT SIZE 1000 HIT 203 PROFIT 13000 RS

MISSES:

1.      REL INFRA  BOUGHT AT 256 EXITED AT 352 LOT SIZE 1000 LOSS 4000 RS

2.      HAVELLS BOUGHT SECOND TIME AT 635-637  EXITED AT 629 LOT SIZE 500  LOSS 3000 RS

3.      SELL RCOM AT 151 SL 152.50 TGT 140 SL HIT LOSS 6000 RS

4.      BUY HINDALCO 110 PE .80 PS SL HIT AT .40 PS LOSS 1600 RS

                                    CASH CALL

 

1.      BUY  HINDZINC ABV 122  SL 117.50 TGT 140

2.      BUY YES BANK 225- 235  TGT 275 ACHIEVED

3.      BUY ONGC 245 TGT 275   STOCK  HIT 270  IN 2 DAYS

4.      BUY TATA GLOBAL 135-140 TGT 160 HIT 152 THE NEXT WEEK

5.      BUY CAIR AT 315  TGT 340  TARGET ACHIEVED IN A WEEK

6.      AMARRAJA BATTERY BUY 285 TGT 300-325  BOTH TARGET ACHIEVED VERY NEXT DAY

7.      GSKCOSUMERS TOLD TO BUY AT 4200 HIT 4900 AFTER 4 WEEKS

8.      BUY ASIAN PAINTS 400- 420 TGT 460- 490  BOTH TARGET ACHIEVED

9.      BUY CROMPTON GREVES AT 91 SL 88 TGT 98- 100 TARGET ACHIEVED

10.   

 ( I HAVE NOT CALCULATED THE PROFITS MADE IN CASH CALLS AS I HAVE  NOT INDICATED QUANTITY )

 

Aurobindo Pharma :Getting Ready for a Cup & handle Breakout abv 205

Aurobindo Pharma :Getting Ready for a Cup & handle Breakout abv 205